About UPI  |  UPI en Español   |   My Account
Free News Update:
United Press International - News. Analysis. Insight.™ - 100 Years of Journalistic Excellence
  • Home
  • Top News
  • Entertainment
  • Odd News
  • Sports
    • 2008 Olympics
  • Business
  • Science
  • Health
  • Analysis
    • Energy Resources
    • Security Industry
    • Emerging Threats
  • Video
  • News Photos
Search:
Go
Advertise on UPI
You are here:  Home / Emerging Threats / Analysis: Gaza -- What if?

Emerging Threats

View archive | RSS Feed

Analysis: Gaza -- What if?

By CLAUDE SALHANI, UPI Contributing Editor
Published: Jan. 28, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Order reprints  |  Print Story  |  Email to a Friend  |  Post a Comment
Close
WASHINGTON, Jan. 28 (UPI) -- Last week some 700,000 Palestinians oozed through 15 openings blasted by explosives in the 7-mile barrier erected by Israel as a security measure to keep Gazans and their weapons apart -- to the extent that walls, barriers, fences, frontiers and checkpoints can do the job in the absence of a peace treaty.

That means that almost half the population of the 1.5 million people who live in the constricted Gaza Strip descended on the Egyptian area around the town of El-Arish like a human tsunami, buying everything in sight.

Reports from Gaza and the southern town of Rafah indicate the exodus of Gazans was spontaneous, brought about as a result of the blockade imposed by Israel on the Palestinians in the Strip. The blockade on Gaza by Israel was in retaliation to the firing by Hamas gunmen of Qassam rockets on Israeli cities and towns near Gaza.

But just how spontaneous was the Palestinian surge? Was it truly an unplanned occurrence, a knee-jerk reaction of a people going hungry? Possibly.

But what if all this was not spontaneous? What if the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who took part in the two-day shopping spree in Egypt were egged on and encouraged by members of Hamas, who saw a unique opportunity to demonstrate to Israel that its policy of blockading Gaza simply would not work?

And even if the scheme were not initially thought up by Hamas, the fact is that the Islamic Resistance Movement was quick enough to recognize an opportunity and wasted no time turning a delicate situation to their favor.

Why was last week's Palestinian exodus not spontaneous? Among the reasons is the fact that explosives had to be used to create the 15 breaches in the security barrier. People in search of food don't typically carry explosives around, even in Gaza. The concertina wire needed to be flattened and removed with the help of a bulldozer. Someone had two make sure there would be one on hand.

And finally, someone, or rather some people with a good sense of organization, had to spread the word around the entire Strip of what was transpiring on the border in Rafah, some 20 miles from Gaza City.

Spontaneous? A spur-of-the-moment affair? Hardly.

The organizers, or perhaps we should call them the inciters of this reverse exodus into Egypt, had a pretty good notion that Egyptian troops guarding the Rafah border crossing would not fire on fellow Arabs and Muslims. Had they done so, had Egyptian security forces opened fire and killed dozens of hungry Palestinians, there would have been massive riots in Cairo and other Arab cities.

There are two ways of looking at what happened in Gaza. First, is that the exodus into Egypt was planned by Hamas as a means of breaking the embargo on Gaza. Or, perhaps Hamas jumped on the bandwagon once they realized they could get some political mileage from rapidly developing events. Either way, it shows that Hamas has the ability to adapt to an evolving situation; and to organize a massive movement of people in Gaza, an area they now fully control.

The real danger, however, lies in the weeks ahead. Having seen how successful last week's operation turned out, the planners could decide to repeat it, only this time targeting a different crossing point; this time the target is a crossing point leading to Israel rather than Egypt.

The outcome of such a scenario is frightening.

Imagine that two or three weeks from now, once the food and cigarettes and other goods purchased in Egypt have started to run out again. Hamas begins to incite the crowds to carry out a repeat performance. Only this time they funnel the march north instead of south. An equal number of Gazans -- 700,000 -- are once again mobilized.

And even if only 50,000 people show up, Hamas is well aware that the reception reserved to hordes of Palestinians charging toward the Israeli frontier will no doubt be perceived by Israeli security as nothing less than an invasion of Israeli territory. Hamas knows that the reaction of Israeli border guards is bound to be drastically different than the one received in Egypt. In fact, they are banking on that.

What happens next will send shock waves throughout the Greater Middle East and the Muslim world. From Casablanca to Rawalpindi millions of people will take the street in protest, plunging the Middle East into its worst crisis in modern history.

--

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)



© 2008 United Press International, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
News Photos Slideshows
Photos of the Day
Week in Photos
News
Entertainment
Sports
Features
Most Popular
Stories
Photos
Videos
1.
Analysis: 'Obamania' in Berlin
2.
Analysis: Iran faces ultimatum on nukes
3.
Obama's Brandenburg Gate controversy
4.
Analysis: U.S. military to patrol Internet
5.
Testimony: Bio-terrorist threat is real
Advertise on UPI.com
2008 Olympics
Videos
Enlarge Video
Get the Flash Player to see this player.
Obama overseas
Thursday, July 24
Government bailout: will it work?
Government bailout: will it work?
Wednesday, July 23
U.S. troops: Pull out or keep fighting?
U.S. troops: Pull out or keep fighting?
Tuesday, July 22
Home funerals: Tending to their own
Home funerals: Tending to their own
Thursday, July 3
© 2008 United Press International, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Official_Government_Wires  |   About UPI  |   Site Map  |   Terms of Use  |   Privacy Policy  |   Advertise Online  |   Contact Us

Sponsored Links: Press Release Services - prom dresses - Prom dresses and gowns - Wedding and Honeymoon Experts - Conventions - Trade Shows - Conferences - Motivational Sports Speakers Bureau - Real Estate Properties in the world