WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 (UPI) -- As Election 2002 comes down to the wire, a surprising number of gubernatorial races around the country are heating up.
With incumbents running well in most federal races, attention is turning to the states for a read on where the country is headed.
After several disappointing cycles, the Democrats appear set to make significant gains among state chief executives.
The off-year elections in 2001 set them up nicely. A strong showing in New Jersey and a narrow win in Virginia, albeit by a candidate who ran on traditionally Republican themes, energized party activists. The results gave them hope they might be on the road to regaining their status as the country's dominant political party, something they lost in the 1994 GOP landslide.
"Certainly the Democrats are going to pick up some important states. One reason is that, though economic issues have been submerged at the federal level by Iraq and North Korea and, to some extent the Beltway Sniper, the same thing has not happened at the state level," Democrat political strategist Steve McMahon of Trippi, McMahon and Squier said.
A strong consensus exists on this point.
President George W. Bush continues to enjoy strong job approval ratings -- 67 percent according to the Oct. 21 Gallup poll. Other national polls have the country evenly split between those who believe America is headed in the right direction and those who think it is on the wrong track. A mid-October Wall Street Journal/NBC poll of over 1,000 registered voters has right direction at 44 percent, wrong track at 42 percent.
The country's good feeling about the job Bush is doing seems to be protecting Republicans in Washington from voter angst about the soft economy. Neither party is getting the blame for the state of the economy according to the survey data, nor are they getting credit for having a plan to spur economic growth.
The blame for the soft economy has to fall somewhere. In McMahon's view, it is falling on the nation's governors.
"Economic anxiety, 401k's that have become '201k's,' rising health care costs and the general sense that the economy is on the wrong track has damaged incumbent governors generally," said McMahon, who is highly regarded by operatives in both parties.
Republicans, however, are more likely to pay the price. The reason is simple. As McMahon points out, "There are many more GOP-held governorships up this cycle, so they are getting a disproportionate amount of the blame."
The numbers bear this out.
Going in to the election, the GOP holds the governorship in 27 states, the Democrats have it in 21, and in two states, Maine and Minnesota, the governors are independents who are not seeking re-election. Out of 36 states where the governorship is being contested, there is no incumbent running for re-election in 20 of them.
This is the highest vacancy rate in 30 years and, if two or more of the incumbents seeking re-election lose, as is likely according to current surveys, it will set a record for the number of new state chief executives chosen in a single year.
Polls of varied methodology -- likely voters, registered voters, all voters, small samples and large -- have a surprising number of incumbents and candidates from the same party as retiring governors in more trouble than they should be.
The prime example is California Democrat Gov. Gray Davis, who was elected four years ago in a landslide that many believed heralded the end of the state's once powerful GOP organization.
His re-election is not certain in spite of the estimated $60 million he raised for his campaign. The state's economy is in a shambles and Davis has been blamed for the power outages, budget crises, and scandals that have occurred during his term.
His Republican opponent, businessman Bill Simon, is seen as more conservative than most California voters are comfortable with. Even supporters have called Simon's campaign the worst in state history. Davis should have been on his way to an easy victory but he continues to stumble.
In the last two weeks, public polls have shown Davis beginning to open up a lead, 10 points in the most recent statewide survey, yet he has not been able to get his numbers out of the low 40s for most of the campaign.
Many analysts believe this indicates Davis has a hard ceiling of support and cannot get any higher.
Campaign analysts who have looked at the data say it shows that most Californians do not want either man to be governor.
A judge's order Monday to release letters connecting Davis to a 10-year old racketeering scandal could tip the balance. Prosecutors concluded in the original investigation that Davis' accuser lacked credibility and they took no action. The Davis campaign says the allegations are totally false. The Simon campaign is trying to make an issue out of the case and Simon's internal polls have the race much closer than public polls.
It is clear that voter turnout efforts, which could be dramatically impacted by last minute allegations against either candidate, hold the key to victory.
Davis is not alone. Voters seem to want change at the state level all over America, and for a variety of reasons.
In Alabama, polls shows one-term incumbent Gov. Don Siegelman, a Democrat, now running behind his GOP challenger, U.S. Rep. Bob Riley. Polls in Arkansas have Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee with just a slight lead over state Treasurer Jimmie Lou Fisher in a race no one believed would be competitive when it began.
Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes was once seen as a dark horse presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2004. Now he is fighting for his political life. No one thought he could be beaten when the campaign started, in part because of the many millions he had raised for his re-election. Former state Sen. President Sonny Perdue, his Democrat-turned-Republican opponent, has been badly under-funded yet lags behind by only nine points in the latest Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters.
The Illinois governor's race has closed to nine points in recent polls but GOP state Attorney General Jim Ryan still has a long way to go before he can catch Democrat U.S. Rep. Rod Blagojevich.
Like Davis, Ryan is hampered by a corruption scandal involving the retiring governor, George Ryan, a fellow Republican who is no relation. Blagojevich has led by double-digits for most of the race and, if he wins, he will be the first Democrat elected governor since Dan Walker in 1972.
Pennsylvania and Michigan figure prominently in the 2004 political plans of both parties and both look ready to toss out the Republicans at the top of the ticket.
Republican Gov. John Engler is retiring after 12 years at the helm in Michigan. Democrat Attorney General Jennifer Granholm leads her opponent, GOP Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus, by double digits.
That the race is not close is considered something of a surprise as Engler oversaw a renaissance of the Michigan Republican party that made it, for a time at least, the dominant party in the state once considered a bastion of organized labor.
Former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell maintains a wide lead over GOP Attorney General Mike Fisher in Pennsylvania. Rendell's strong performance thus far has mystified some Republicans. As a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Rendell was a spokesman for the national party and is considerably to the left of many of the state's Democrats, especially on social issues. If he wins, he will be the first Philadelphia chief executive to become governor in almost 100 years.
Republicans running for the open governorships in the GOP strongholds of Arizona and Kansas are well behind where they should be.
In New Mexico, Republicans hopes they could keep the governorship are fading, making former Energy Secretary Bill Richardson the first Clinton cabinet veteran to, perhaps, win a significant post.
A number of potential upsets are on the table, meaning it is not all bad news for the Republicans.
In South Carolina, former U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford has seen his numbers improve steadily throughout the campaign. He looks to be headed for a win over Democrat Gov. Jim Hodges, himself an upset winner four years ago.
In Oregon, where balloting has already begun, a so-called temporary tax increase to be considered early next year has brought Republican Kevin Mannix within striking distance. A poll of 600 likely voters by The Oregonian newspaper has him behind Democrat Ted Kulongoski, who supports the tax hike, by only six points. Democrats have held the governorship here for 20 years.
Democrat Dave Freudenthal is within two points of Republican Eli Bebout in Wyoming and Democrat Bill McBride continues to nip at the heels of Republican Gov. Jeb Bush in Florida. GOP analysts believe that the momentum in the race has flipped back to Bush after televised debates between the two men but Democrats, chief among them national party chairman Terry McAuliffe, have publicly pronounced the end of Florida's Bush Administration. New polls however show Bush opening up a lead.
In Maryland and Rhode Island, both bastions of political liberalism, the Republican candidates are running startlingly competitive races. The GOP also hopes to win the governorship in Vermont.
An independent candidate is drawing support away from Democrat Lt. Gov. Doug Racine. If no candidate wins a majority on Nov. 5, then the election will be decided by the state legislature, where the Republicans have an overwhelming majority in the state House and are behind by only 14-to-16 in the state Senate.
What does all this mean for the elections in 2004? A lot, according to McMahon.
The number of seats that will change hands between the parties, and the reasons for the change, should draw the attention of policy makers in Washington, especially those in the White House. "The November election should be a wake up call to the Bush administration," McMahon said. "The country never focused on the economy in this cycle and never connected the softness to Bush. The White House isn't going to be as lucky in 2004."
