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Commentary: Arafat on way out?

By RICHARD TOMKINS

WASHINGTON, May 8 (UPI) -- The United States and Israel may be preparing to ring down the curtain on Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's long-running role as key actor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Israel's influential Ha'aretz newspaper Wednesday quoted Israeli sources in the entourage of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as saying it was clear to Sharon and President George W. Bush that reform of the Palestinian Authority -- demanded by both states -- should bring about a government in which Arafat had no power.

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Sharon, the account continued, was expected to adopt a purported U.S. plan that would establish a temporary government within the Palestinian Authority while constitutional reforms were undertaken that would lead to Arafat's exit, which in turn would help move the Israeli-Palestinian peace process forward.

"It was clear that the chief (Arafat) must be moved to a different role within the PA, customarily a symbolic position, and the administrative responsibilities would be transferred to others," the newspaper quoted the source.

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The U.S., the source added, believes moderate Arab states would support such a scenario as long as Israel appeared to be sitting on the sidelines while it took place.

Fact or fancy?

Although divining the future is an uncertain endeavor, statements and non-statements coming out of Washington before, during and after the prime minister's short visit fall far short of a ringing endorsements for Arafat.

-- President Bush: "I have been disappointed in Chairman Arafat," he said Tuesday when asked if Sharon should relent and agree to negotiate peace with Arafat. "I think he's let the Palestinian people down. I think he had an opportunity to lead to peace and he hasn't done so. That's why it's important for all of us to work out a way to develop the institutions necessary for there to be a Palestinian Authority that's got the ability to help promote hope for the future of her people ...."

-- A "senior White House official," who spoke on background: "... Nobody is trying to choose the leadership for the Palestinian people. What we are saying is that there are certain requirements of leadership, and those need to be met and they haven't been met."

"We're not trying to choose who should be part of that leadership," the official said again when asked once more about Arafat's helmsmanship of the Palestinian Authority, "but the character of that leadership is of the utmost importance to the United States."

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-- Spokesman Ari Fleischer Wednesday when asked if Bush backed Sharon's not dealing with Arafat: "The president is focused on more than any one person. The president's focus includes Yasser Arafat, but it's broader than that. Progress can be made talking with a number of people, including Arab nations, as well as those people who work diligently in the Palestinian Authority to find ways to bring about reforms."

Was that a yes or a no?

Sharon has flat out refused to negotiate peace with Arafat, saying Arafat has not only failed to stop the wave of terrorist attacks in Israel that have claimed nearly 500 Israeli lives -- and resulted in more than 1,000 Palestinians being killed by Israeli forces -- but is himself involved in supporting terrorism.

The paper said Bush, fed up with the wave of terror committed against Israel and Arafat's bankrupt response, has now agreed to Israel not holding talks with the PA until reforms are in place.

Bush has repeatedly lamented Arafat's broken promises to crack down on terror so the peace process can move forward, but there's still no official word to either fuel the Ha'artez report or throw cold water on it.

Arafat, who has successfully promoted himself as the only game in town when it comes to the Palestinians, may find he is not as indispensable to his people's future as he thinks. True, following his more than 40-day siege by Israeli troops in Ramallah -- the result of Israeli military response to the bombings -- Arafat is riding high with the Palestinian man in the street. He's been there before. But he has also been in disfavor -- with extremists opposed to any accommodation with Israel, and with Palestinians who chafe under his autocratic rule and the corruption in territories controlled by his PA.

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Is Arafat still relevant? Will he stay so? Time will tell. Sharon looks upon him with obvious disgust, like a boil that needs lancing. Washington -- at best -- views him as an unreliable partner in the peace process, one either unable or unwilling to rein in practitioners of terror within territory supposedly under his control. Something, or someone, has got to give. And the latest Palestinian suicide bomber, who killed 15 Israelis and wounded more than 50 others Tuesday, has punctuated the point.

President Bush, meanwhile, was meeting Wednesday evening with Jordan's King Abdullah II. The White House said "the president's agenda with the king is to talk about ideas about how to chart a way forward on the pathway to peace, and talk about the general situation in the region, talk about general ideas about how to reform, rebuild Palestinian political and economic institutions, talk about bilateral political and economic ties."

If ever there was a time to be a fly on the wall ....

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