Oscar race in homestretch

WASHINGTON, March 12 (UPI) -- The Screen Actors Guild awards Sunday provided, as usual, revealing tips about who will walk home with the Oscars on March 24. And the pattern of wins was a surprisingly deserving one.

Russell Crowe and Haile Berry won the SAG awards for best film actor and actress and both remain the frontrunners for those respective Academy Awards. Crowe is the current fashionable Bad Boy of Hollywood and it would be his second best actor award in a handful of years Also, the usual infighting and pre-Oscar maneuvering and intrigue has been particularly intense this year, especially with the insinuations that mathematician John Nash, the subject of Crowe's splendid portrayal in "A Beautiful Mind" may have been both homosexual and anti-Semitic.

However, those issues have been hyped up by the media and look unlikely to sway more than a handful of Academy voters. After all, Tom Hanks won an Oscar for his portrayal of an openly gay man in "Philadelphia" and if Nash ever did make nasty anti-Semitic remarks it appears to have been briefly, fitfully and when he literally was raving mad. And as Crowe's victory Sunday night showed, the anti-Nash whispering campaign appears already to have backfired.

Hanks too won his Oscars back to back, breaking a taboo that went back five and half decades to Spencer Tracy's similar achievement before World War II and, in recent years giving Oscars in pretty quick succession to obviously outstanding actors at the peak of their form has become the current fashion in Tinseltown. As well as Hanks, Kevin Spacey was the beneficiary of that and there is no reason why Crowe should not be too. And as Jack Nicholson found with "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" and Geoffrey Rush with "Shine", playing the mad always wins hearts and score points with Academy voters.

Crowe also benefits from relatively weak rivals. Tom Wilkinson's performance in "In the Bedroom" is superlative and riveting. But it is the kind of subtle, perfectly under-pitched one that the Academy usually undervalues. He is not a big name and "In the Bedroom is not a big film. The Academy will decide he was sufficiently honored with his nomination.

Had Will Smith really pulled off his performance as Muhammad Ali in "Ali", he would have been a shoo-in for the Oscar, whoever he was up against. But largely due to what appears to have been the miscalculations of director Michael Mann rather than his own talent, his Ali is an angry, bitter, predictable caricature rather than the generous, witty truly larger-than-life presence still happily with us. Voters have too vivid memories of the original to go with the impersonation.

Sean Penn is as usual excellent but the mawkishness of the script undermines his technical excellence in "I am Sam" and since the "Sympathy for the Insane" vote will all be going to Crowe, he will also be left as an also-ran. Denzel Washignton is a regular favorite of the Academy, but his performance in "Training Day," while excellent and convincing, does not light up the screen and he already ahs an Oscar anyway. Besides, Academy voters are blasé about regular police procedurals and "Training Day" is no "L.A. Confidential."

The way seems equally wide open for Haile Berry in "Monster's Ball." No African American woman has ever won the best actress award and she surely deserves it. The objections to Tom Wilkinson winning for his performance in "In the Bedroom" also apply to Sissy Spacek in that movie and to Judy Dench for "Iris.' Both of them also already have their statuettes and Berry does not. Renee Zellweger's nod for "Bridget Jones' Diary" is the kind of light weight anomaly that always makes it into the Final Five. That leaves Berry only one serious rival, Nicole Kidman for "Moulin Rouge."

Kidman's singing and acrobatic, athletic grace in "Moulin Rouge" are a marvel and her acting isn't bad either. But the Academy has not been in the mood for tragic early deaths from consumption, as tuberculosis used to be called, since the advent of antibiotics half a century ago and it has usually been tone deaf to the allure of musicals, especially to their female stars. The SAG pattern of preferring Berry to Kidman looks almost certain to hold on Oscar Night.

The "Beautiful Mind" tidal surge that will carry Crowe to the Best Actor award looks likely to carry Jennifer Connelly to one for best supporting actress too, but that race, in contrast to the Big Two, is still far from certain.

Maggie Smith is an also ran (she already has two statuettes at home to comfort her) and despite her SAG win Sunday, Helen Mirren looks unlikely to swing significant Academy support for her turn as the housekeeper with secrets in "Gosford Park." But don't rule out Marisa Tomei for "In the Bedroom". Academy voters feel guilty over dunderestiamting and dismissing her for so many years since she won an earlier Best Supporting Actress award as Joe Pesci's girlfriend in "My Cousin Vinnie." And for the real dark horse contender, keep an eye on Kate Winslet for "Iris" The Academy loves thoughtful, tragic, "classy" British "serious" flicks and the "Remains of the Day" vote will definitely go to her.

The picture also looks clear in the Best Supporting Actor category and here again the SAG results show the way to bet. Sir Ian MacKellen romped home for his portrayal of Gandalf the Gray, the nine-foot tall good wizard in "Lord of the Rings." The role was in fact a sleep walk for the brilliant MacKellen, but Academy voters will fear being lynched by legions of mad Tolkienites if they do not throw a bone to Peter Jackson's technically magically but bloated and predictable epic.

Also, they are likely to feel justly guilty that they slighted MacKellen for his dazzling performances in "Apt Pupil," "Richard III" and "Gods and Monsters", every one of which was worthy of the golden statuette. In the Academy Awards, as in the Republican Party, "Buggins' Turn" counts for a lot. If you keep turning out the worthy work over the years, you will likely eventually get honored for work that isn't. It worked that way for Al Pacino and Paul Newman.

The SAG results give no indication for Best Director or Best Picture on Oscar Night but in both those areas "A Beautiful Mind" and its director look like clear though by no means certain favorites. "Lord of the Rings" could possibly cause an upset though that isn't likely. Forget "Lord of the Rings". The nomination will be seen as sufficient honor for it. And "Moulin Rouge" is "only" a musical. But septuagenarian Robert Altman could well upset worthy Ron Howard for a sentimental upset win for "Gosford Park." Academy voters are suckers for that kind of thing.

Happy viewing on March 24. Keep this guide handy, but forgive us our mistakes. After all, Oscar always loves surprises.