WASHINGTON, Dec. 17 (UPI) -- In politics, a day is a lifetime and a year is an eternity.
A lot can happen in an eternity, something that Tom DeLay, Ray LaHood, J.C. Watts and others may want to keep in mind now that a vacancy has opened up in the House GOP leadership.
House Majority Leader Dick Armey's, R-Texas, announcement last Wednesday that his current term would be his last set off an immediate campaign to replace him.
While several members, GOP Conference Chairman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma among them, engaged in a Hamlet-tonian discussion of their thinking, House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, was busy rounding up the commitments necessary to declare victory.
Most observers agree that the job is now DeLay's, baring any unforeseen calamity that would make his elevation unlikely.
If the GOP loses the majority, one calamity that most agree is unlikely but possible, then DeLay could remain whip while Speaker Denny Hastert, R-Ill., became minority leader, eliminating the need for any contested leadership races.
If, as expected, the GOP retains control, then a new whip must be chosen. DeLay's likely successor in the job is Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., currently the chief deputy whip.
This, as longtime Capitol Hill veterans say, is the short version. But nothing in politics is ever certain until it happens and it is a long road from here to there.
The leadership elections will be held next December, after the new Congress is elected. Armey remains majority leader until then.
Any Republican considering a run for leadership or for a different leadership post than they currently occupy need to decide to make their move fairly soon -- even though the post they may be eyeing may never actually become vacant.
DeLay believes he collected more than enough commitments to win the post.
Several of his GOP colleagues who might have considered making a run for the job, including Education Committee Chairman John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Davis, R-Va., chose not to make the race based on the belief that DeLay is right in his assessment, at least according to staff level gossip on Capitol Hill.
All eyes now shift to the race for whip, where Blunt, while the early favorite, faces a challenge from Rep. Ray LaHood, R-Ill., a leader among the moderates.
LaHood, who once served as chief of staff to former House GOP leader Rep. Bob Michel, R-Ill., is running for the post based on his ideological leanings.
Self-described moderates, while a clear minority in the Republican conference, do account for enough votes on any given issue that they can tip the balance of power.
They have complained repeatedly that they have been shut out of the leadership since the GOP attained the majority in 1994, and they have not been shy of late, flexing their muscle on campaign finance re-regulation and presidential trade promotion authority among other issues.
It is an interesting argument and relies on the idea that Republican moderates will increase their strength in the 2002 elections. As it is, the LaHood candidacy represents another example of moderate muscle flexing on the House side of Capitol Hill.
Should J.C. Watts follow through on early speculation and decide to seek a different post then the one he currently occupies, it would become necessary for the GOP to elect a new conference chairman -- the number four slot in the leadership.
And the list of potential candidates for this slot is long.
Rep. Jennifer Dunn of Washington, who made a failed challenge to Armey in 1998, might be a candidate. As might Ohio's Boehner, who held the job until he was ousted by Watts. Also in the running would be New York Rep. Tom Reynolds, a northeasterner who is considered a rising political star.
Rep. John Shadegg of Arizona, who currently heads the informal Republican Study Committee that once formed the base of the DeLay vote, might make a run for the conference leader job or for a lower spot, if one of the other current members of leadership decided to try and move up.
And, while it is unheard of for a freshman to be elected to leadership, it is always possible that a state legislative leader in the 2002 freshman class -- like Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney, whose election to Congress is considered by many to be a foregone conclusion -- might be able to persuade his colleagues to move him to the front of the line.
All of this is, as most everyone will agree, speculative. These musings are predicated on the idea that the situation as it currently exists will closely resemble the lay of the land next December when the ballots will be cast.
In the intervening period, many things could happen that would upset the apple cart. A presumptive winner could stumble and end his or her candidacy.
Regional blocs could demand greater representation in the leadership. The GOP moderates could field a compromise or fusion slate, making every race a contested one. A potential front-runner could give the appearance of weakness, generating several opponents who, together, create odd splits in the conference and allows a dark horse to slip in.
The path appears set. But with 12 months between now and the elections, anything is possible -- including a result that ratifies every general assumption people currently hold about how the races will turn out.
The challenge now, for DeLay and others, is to husband their support -- but only insofar that caution is not mistaken for an unwillingness to stand for principle, jeopardizing the support of members who want leaders who will aggressively challenge the Democrats.
In this, the Democrats have a prime opportunity to inflict damage on the Republicans. The rules of the House do not allow for the kind of individual partisan warfare that Senators can wage.
A concerted effort by House Democrats to drive ideological wedges between GOP conference colleagues could impact the outcome of the leadership elections -- one more potential monkey wrench that DeLay and others must anticipate as they work to maintain regular order, keep control of the House and win their leadership races.
