Weighing 'A Beautiful Mind's' prospects

LOS ANGELES, March 13 (UPI) -- "A Beautiful Mind" is a remarkable phenomenon -- a big-budget Hollywood movie about a schizophrenic mathematician who overcomes his illness and wins the Novel Prize.

Universal and DreamWorks, Imagine Entertainment, producer Brian Grazer and director Ron Howard -- all deserve credit for having the courage to commit their fortunes and reputations to what easily could have been a fiasco.

Russell Crowe has been reminding reporters that a certain trade publication had projected the picture's overall domestic gross would peak at $35 million. At last count, it was $144 million and counting.

The picture got a box-office boost on Feb. 12, when it picked up Oscar nominations -- including best picture, director (Howard), actor (Crowe) and supporting actress (Jennifer Connelly). It's also nominated for adapted screenplay (Akiva Goldsman), original score (James Horner), makeup and film editing.

Film editing, usually referred to as a "technical award," happens to have played a significant part in the success of "A Beautiful Mind." There is a perspective shift in the movie that makes the story work -- and that could have sunk the enterprise if it had been any less effective.

The same can be said for one of the other four nominees for film editing, "Memento." But the other three -- "Black Hawk Down," "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" and "Moulin Rouge" -- all offer a showier approach to editing that probably has more immediate impact on typical moviegoers and could attract more support from academy voters.

Horner, who won the original score Oscar for "Titanic," faces formidable competition -- John Williams ("A.I. Artificial Intelligence," "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"), Randy Newman ("Monsters, Inc.") and Howard Shore ("The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring").

It's possible that Williams, with two nominations, could split his own vote. Also, the law of averages dictates that Newman, who has 16 career nominations -- but no Oscars -- for original song and score, has to take home a trophy sooner or later.

The makeup in "A Beautiful Mind" is artfully done, but subtle. The real showdown in this category is likely to be between "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" and "Moulin Rouge."

Goldsman is a heavy favorite. His adaptation of Sylvia Nasar's book has already won the two most prestigious writing prizes of the season -- the Writers Guild of America Award and the University of Southern California Scripter Award.

Connelly has been regarded as a heavy favorite for supporting actress for her performance as Alicia Nash -- a woman so stalwart in the face of adversity that you wonder at times why the movie isn't about her. The apparent inevitability of an Oscar for Connelly did not necessarily take a hit when the Screen Actors Guild presented its supporting actress award to Helen Mirren of "Gosford Park," since Connelly was not one of the nominees in the category. She was up for female actor in a lead role. The Actor went to Halle Berry for "Monster's Ball."

Earlier in the awards season, the best actor Oscar raced seemed wide open. Russell Crowe earned excellent notices for his turn as mathematician John Nash, but so did Denzel Washington and Tom Wilkinson for their work in "Training Day" and "In the Bedroom."

Crowe, however, has been building momentum in the Oscar drive. With a Golden Globe, a British Film Academy BAFTA and the SAG Award in hand, Crowe seems headed to collect his second straight best actor Oscar.

Ron Howard stands on the brink of taking home his first Oscar, now that he has won the top film-directing award from the Directors Guild of America. In the 54-year-history of that award, the winner has gone on to win the Oscar 49 times.

Howard was one of the five exceptional cases, when the DGA honored him for "Apollo 13" in 1995 and the Oscar went to Mel Gibson for "Braveheart." It would be an astonishing turn of events if Howard became the first director to win the DGA award twice and come up short at the Oscars both times.

As a rule, the movie that receives the most nominations wins for best picture. This year, that would be "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," with 13 nominations.

"A Beautiful Mind" has been the subject of a scurrilous campaign intended to suppress support among academy voters because of real, imagined or supposed transgressions committed by Nash at a time when he was severely mentally ill.

Some movie professionals think the campaign is a dirty trick by a rival studio. Others think it's the work of a sick or disgruntled lone ranger. Many wonder whether the nasty tone of the campaign will provoke a sympathy vote.

Whether the movie wins best picture or not, questions about dirty politics will linger -- and it will be impossible to measure what effect the negativity had, if any, on the fortunes of "A Beautiful Mind."