MOSCOW, Dec. 2 (UPI) -- The recent string of victories won by Ukraine's political opposition, lead by Viktor Yushchenko, may be deceptive. The "Orange Revolution" is still set to succeed, but much of its "revolutionary juice" is being squeezed from it.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and outgoing President Leonid Kuchma is aggressively filling the political vacuum created by Ukraine's post-presidential election of Nov. 21 - denying official victory to either Viktor Yushchenko or regime-sponsored candidate Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
In an contest believed to have been fraught with gross fraud and other irregularities, Ukraine's Supreme Court intervened, barring the Central Election Commission from declaring Kuchma's handpicked successor, Yanukovych, the winner. The Supreme Court is expected to make public its review of the election on Thursday or Friday. Depending on the court's conclusion, either the runoff presidential vote or the first and second rounds will be deemed invalid. There remains the unlikely possibly that Yushchenko will be declared the winner.
The "Orange Revolution" was given another victory, of sorts, when parliament this week passed a no-confidence resolution against Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and the rest of his government. The opposition, thousands of whom occupy Kiev in a round-the-clock protest, interpreted this as a strong victory. The vote against Yanukovych showed that the authorities were finally losing their grip on power.
However, due to nuances in the law concerning the passage of no-confidence motion against the government, the constitutionality of parliament's vote against Yanukovych is ambiguous. A lawyer familiar with Ukrainian legislation told United Press International that the Supreme Court might have to rule on the legality of parliament's action - and this could take up to six months.
The Supreme Court's intervention in Ukraine's political crisis and parliament's attempt to remove Yanukovych from power (as well as de-legitimize his presidential candidacy) have not directly benefited Yushchenko's bid to be named the legal incumbent to the presidency.
Opposition tactics have de-legitimized Ukraine's presidential elections but have not necessary promoted the insistence of Yushchenko's electoral victory. Kuchma has been quick to take advantage of this error and others.
Yushchenko is making other errors as well. While insisting he was the winner in the runoff election, he is in the process of making deals with the regime, with Western mediators egging him on. These deals include a repeat of the entire election - not just the second round -- as well as political reforms that would dilute the power of the presidency and increase the power of the prime minister. With the talk of secession or greater regional autonomy for eastern Ukraine, even further political dilution of central political authority is also in the cards. All this is being discussed while thousands continue their protest demanding that Yushchenko simply be declared president.
Kuchma, probably the most hated man in Ukraine, has shown himself to be quite adroit. Sensing the opposition has not made strong inroads in negotiations with the pillars of state power - the military, security forces, and most of the country's oligarchs - Kuchma remains Ukraine primary power broker. When talk of eastern secession was loudest, he met with governors he has the power to fire. Instead of the opposition attempting to reach out to the east to keep the country sovereign, Kuchma stole the initiative to negotiate on the opposition's behalf.
Changing the law to run another presidential election is also in Kuchma's hands. The opposition can garner a small majority in parliament to pass resolutions. However, to override a presidential veto on something as important as electoral reform, parliament needs to assemble majority of two-thirds - this is extremely unlikely.
Electoral reform could see Kuchma attempting to name his successor again. By all accounts, Yanukovych is already a spent political force and likely to be dropped by Kuchma when the moment is ripe and at his discretion. Kuchma also most certainly knows the longer the Ukraine's political crisis continues - slowly turning into a financial and economic crises - the better he is positioned to find a "compromise" candidate to run against Yushchenko in a third vote.
Peace and unity within the ranks of the opposition, protesting in the winter's cold, could start to deteriorate. Decisions and negotiations over wide array of issues are in play, but not including who actually won the runoff election. This can't sit well with Yushchenko's followers for long.
United Press International has been told that Yushchenko's hardcore backers are just inching to storm government buildings and force Yushchenko's inauguration. This eventually is something Yushchenko can't back at the moment, sitting with Western mediators and Kuchma taking his time.
The protestors supporting Yushchenko have been a catalyst for change in Ukraine. The opposition is still set to see a likely Yushchenko presidency. However, by the time that happens much of the juice that fueled the "Orange Revolution" will have been squeezed and consumed to protect much of Kuchma's political status quo.
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Peter Lavelle is an independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of the electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" untimely-thoughts.com.
