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Upsets not the norm, polling agency says

PRINCETON, N.J., Oct. 27 (UPI) -- Republican U.S. presidential candidate John McCain, trailing his Democratic rival in many polls, can't really look to history for a comeback win, Gallup said.

Only twice in the past 14 elections has the presidential candidate ahead in Gallup polling about a week before the election lost the national popular vote -- George Bush in 2000 and Jimmy Carter in 1980, Gallup reported Monday. Only Carter lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote to Ronald Reagan.

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The 2000 example may be better suited to the type of upset -- winning through the Electoral College -- McCain hopes to achieve, the Princeton, N.J., polling agency said. Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore eked out a popular-vote victory, 48.4 percent to 47.9 percent, but lost the Electoral College vote.

With only one week left in 2008, history is on the side of Democratic hopeful Barack Obama, the pollster said. While it isn't unprecedented to lose a 7-percentage-point-to-9-percentage-point lead among registered voters, Gallup said its research indicates it would be unusual.

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