New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium. TV: CBS, Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn.

SERIES HISTORY: 100th regular-season meeting. Dolphins lead the series, 52-47. But the Patriots have won two of the last three, including a 31-24 decision in Week 3 at Foxboro.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

The Patriots, who have won the AFC East and earned a first-round bye, can secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win or an Oakland loss.

The Dolphins have clinched a playoff spot and can claim the No. 5 seed with a win and a Kansas City loss.

Miami wants to utilize running back Jay Ajayi as much as possible. But the Dolphins also must continue to get plays from all throughout the lineup -- offense, defense and special teams.

New England is likely to score at least 30 points, which is why Miami needs contributions from defense and special teams, as they've been getting while winning nine of their last 10 games.

Defensively, the Dolphins are unlikely to stop running back LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 123 yards when these teams met in September. Miami's run defense is 30th in the NFL (141.8 yards per game) and has allowed 12 teams to rush for more than 100 yards. The Dolphins must find a way to absorb the damage they allow on the ground.

Pass defense will be critical for Miami, which is bad news when you face Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

Most likely Miami won't be able to stop New England from scoring, so it will have to outscore the Patriots, and if the Dolphins get big plays throughout the lineup, as they've done recently, victory is possible.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Dolphins pass defense. Baltimore and Buffalo shredded Miami's pass defense, so you'd have to assume this would be an easy job for Brady. Miami's pass rush will likely be ineffective because Brady delivers the ball so quickly. Coverage will be at a premium, and that's not favorable for the Dolphins. Turnovers and third-down stops will be key for Miami; if the Dolphins can thrive at both, it would become a more manageable game. But, if they struggle, it could get ugly.

--Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi vs. Patriots run defense. Ajayi has three 200-yard rushing games, including last week's 206-yard effort at Buffalo. That game included a 57-yard run in overtime. If Ajayi gives the Dolphins' offense a solid foundation, the play-action pass becomes a huge factor in Miami's favor. Ideally, Ajayi leads the way offensively, which would be a problem for New England.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: WR Danny Amendola (ankle), CB Cyrus Jones (knee)

--Doubtful: WR Malcolm Mitchell (knee)

--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle, shoulder), QB Tom Brady (thigh), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), WR Matt Slater (foot)

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Out: QB Ryan Tannehill (knee)

--Doubtful: LB Jelani Jenkins (knee), CB Byron Maxwell (ankle)

--Questionable: RB Jay Ajayi (shoulder), LB Spencer Paysinger (knee), DE Mario Williams (ankle)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount. New England's lead back has had his most impressive season while turning 30 this season. He's set career highs for carries, yards and touchdowns, leading the NFL in the latter category with 17 scores. But, Blount has slowed a bit over the last couple weeks, picking up just 31 yards on 17 carries (1.8 avg.) in Denver and a mere 50 yards on 20 attempts (2.5 avg.) against the Jets, failing to reach at least 3 yards a carry for the third and fourth time this season. Blount had averaged at least 4 yards a carry in the previous four contests and it would be nice to get the big back rolling again heading into the postseason, given this week's matchup with a Miami defense giving up 4.9 yards per carry.

FAST FACTS:

-- Patriots QB Tom Brady has 12.5-1 TD/INT ratio (25 pass TDs vs. 2 INTs), the second highest in NFL history. He ranks second in NFL with a 110.7 rating and can clinch a fifth season with a 100 or higher rating, fifth most in league history.

-- Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount had two rush TDs last week and leads the NFL with a franchise-record 17 rushing TDs. He aims for a fifth game in a row with a rushing TD.

-- Patriots CB Malcolm Butler had two INTs last week and leads the team with four.

-- Dolphins QB Matt Moore has six passing TDs vs. two INTs in the past two weeks. He passed for 281 yards and three TDs in his last start vs. the Patriots on Dec. 24, 2011.

-- Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi rushed for 206 yards and a TD last week and is the fourth player in NFL history with three games of 200 rushing yards in a season. He ranks fourth in team history with 1,213 rushing yards.

-- Dolphins LB Cameron Wake has 10.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and an INT in his past 10 games; he has a sack in three straight games. He's tied for second in the NFL with five forced fumbles.

PREDICTION:

With a chance to secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs last year, the Patriots flubbed Week 17 in Miami and saw Denver use the home field to edge it for the AFC's Super Bowl berth. The bet here is that they won't present Oakland with a similar opportunity this year, as New England figures to take advantage of a shorthanded Dolphins secondary and limit Ajayi's success, forcing Moore to do the heavy lifting. That's not a good proposition for Miami in this one -- or in the postseason.

OUR PICK: Patriots, 30-24.

--Bucky Dent