Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys: Prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. TV: FOX, Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.

SERIES HISTORY: 27th regular-season meeting. Packers lead series, 14-12. Green Bay has won the last five meetings, dating back to 2009, and with a victory Sunday can match its longest winning streak in the series. Those six straight wins came in the teams' first six meetings from 1960 to 1968, highlighted by the Packers' back-to-back NFL Championship triumphs during the 1966 and '67 seasons -- the latter a 21-17 victory in the famous Ice Bowl at Lambeau Field. All but one of the games in the Packers' current win streak against the Cowboys came in Green Bay. The Packers prevailed 28-7 at Lambeau last December, 11 months after they hung on for a 26-21 win over the Cowboys there in the divisional round of the playoffs.

GAMEDATE: 10/16/16

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Nineteen quarterbacks have more explosive passing plays (25-plus yards) this season than Aaron Rodgers (six), which is the vital information used in nitpicking the Packers' offensive performance to date. Rodgers tied for the NFL lead with 39 explosive pass plays last season. He is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt (28th in the NFL) and completing 56.1 percent of his passes. Those aren't the customary numbers from Green Bay's perennial MVP contender, but signs of a breakout emerged last week, and the Cowboys' zone-based defense has its soft spots. With WR Randall Cobb stepping up, the Cowboys are challenged to match up across the three-WR formation the Packers roll out.

Defense has been the star of the show for the Packers, leading the NFL in run defense (42.8 yards per game) with an underrated wave of front seven defenders. The challenge this week is containing rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott, who leads the NFL in rushing by 85 yards over former Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (Titans). Elliott averages 5.01 yards per rush and 109.2 yards per game for the Cowboys, and Dallas used two tight ends more with Dez Bryant (knee) idle. That alignment sets the Cowboys up to contend with the Packers 1-2 punch off the edge. OLB Nick Perry is living in the opponents' backfield and sidekick Clay Matthews can terrorize rookie QB Dak Prescott if he hangs in the pocket too long.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Packers WR Jordy Nelson vs. Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne. The Packers' passing game has sputtered at times this season but Jordy Nelson has come back strong to make plays. He has just 21 catches through four games but has scored five touchdowns. Claiborne has been Dallas's best defender and has yet to give up a touchdown pass this season. He will need to keep Nelson in check.

--Packers defensive front vs. Cowboys offensive line. Dallas has long been synonymous with strong offensive-line play. That reputation has merely been amplified a month into this season with the Cowboys' leading the NFL with an average of 155.2 rushing yards per game and ranking second in total offense. What's more, rookie quarterback Dak Prescott's impressive start to the season as the fill-in for the injured Tony Romo has included being sacked only seven times in five games. Green Bay counters with a highly productive defense. The Packers are No. 1 in the league for stopping the run with a microscopic average of 42.8 yards allowed per game. They have generated 14 sacks in four games, with all but two of those takedowns coming from linemen and linebackers.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Cowboys CB Anthony Brown has been a huge surprise as a rookie sixth-round pick from Purdue. He has filled in admirably for the injured Orlando Scandrick as the slot corner and has not looked out of place. He is actually more physical than Scandrick. He will be tested this week by Green Bay's Randall Cobb, who is quick and strong in the middle of the field.

INJURY UPDATE:

Packers running back James Starks was downgraded from questionable to out for Sunday's game.

Starks underwent knee surgery on Sunday morning, according to a report by Fox Sports.

Starks reportedly will be sidelined at least two weeks. Fox Sports reported the surgery was a clean-up of a troublesome knee.

Starks apparently aggravated the injured knee in practice earlier this week. He was re-examined on Saturday and the Packers ruled him out of Sunday's game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Starting running back Eddie Lacy (ankle) also is ailing but is expected to play against the Cowboys. Receiver Randall Cobb is slated to be Lacy's backup.

Lacy is off to a nice start this season with 295 rushing yards and an average of 5.5 yards per carry in four games.

Starks, in contrast, has gained only 42 yards on the ground and is averaging only 1.8 yards per rush.

Although Starks has been productive on occasion during his six-plus years with the team, Lacy has been vital to Green Bay's offense this season.

Lacy ran for 103 yards on 17 carries in the team's pre-bye win over the Detroit Lions on Sept. 25, then had 81 yards on only 11 carries before he left the game against the New York Giants because of the bum ankle late in the third quarter.

{b: INJURY REPORT:}

Dallas -- Out: T Chaz Green (foot), QB Tony Romo (back), CB Orlando Scandrick (hamstring, hamstring). Questionable: K Dan Bailey (back), WR Dez Bryant (knee), CB Morris Claiborne (ankle), RB Lance Dunbar (knee), DE David Irving (concussion), DT Terrell McClain (shoulder), T Tryon Smith (back), LB Kyle Wilber (neck), WR Terrance Williams (shoulder), TE Jason Witten (chest). Green Bay -- Out: S Chris Banjo (hamstring), TE Jared Cook (ankle), CB Sam Shields (concussion), RB James Starks (knee). Questionable: RB Eddie Lacy (ankle), CB Damarious Randall (groin)

FAST FACTS:

RB Ezekiel Elliott is gaining 10-plus yards on 11 percent of his rushing attempts.

The Cowboys were 1 of 11 on third down at Green Bay last season. Elliott has gained an NFL-leading 31 first downs.

A Cowboys win would give them a 5-1 record for the 14th time in franchise history, the last coming in 2014. It would also give them five straight wins, their longest streak since winning six straight in 2014.

The Cowboys have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher or 100-yard receiver through the first five games.

PREDICTION:

Green Bay's brand of keep-away demands precision from Aaron Rodgers and, while Dallas' defense has been game for all challenges this season, the secondary will be overmatched if the Packers' machine starts churning out first downs. The Cowboys have a winning formula and should have a chance to win in the fourth quarter.

OUR PICK: Packers, 27-22.

--Jeff Reynolds