TOKYO, Dec. 31 -- As the Year of the Dragon finally exits from Japan, the populace are busy preparing for the Year of the Snake that's about to enter.
As no St. George was forthcoming during 2000 to slay the economic dragons, there's little hope for a St. Patrick emerging to chase away the economic serpents in 2001.
A year ago, the dragon entered, ready to fight economic foes from all quarters, in alliance with the bulls on the U.S. mainland. With exports rising on a steady dollar, IT wealth around the corner on an erupting NASDAQ and politicians keen to feed the brute with huge helpings of public funds, as B2B promised untold riches and consumers were looking for signs to spend, Japan dared to hope. But eggs do not always hatch; not only for incubating start-ups, but also for dragons and more ominously, for snakes as well.
Clear hindsight is a cheap commodity round about now, but what the government and business leaders and the anxious public really hope for is 2020 foresight.
2000 began with the rise and fall of the NASDAQ empire and the tumbling legions had their knock-on effect in Tokyo as cagey Japanese investors became even more so. Capital took a flight from the seething fracas and nested safely in Tokyo for while as foreign buying of stocks began to dominate and land prices further declined. Japan's underbelly began to soften up for easy entry and as the money proved later, easy exit.
Then, the May death of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, threw Yoshio Mori into the captain's seat. Summoning all his supernatural power, the new man declared his nation to be "divine" and the affronted gods made sure at the June Lower House election that his party would suffer its largest ever loss of seats. Some things are truly divine.
The nation woke up even more in June for the first time, when 15,000 imbibers of Snow Brand Milk Products Ltd., went down with food poisoning while the bosses played dumb. As a result, the company lost its top position overnight, dumping $700 million in the process. The squeaky, clean reputations of all the manufacturers came under public suspicion for the first time, with only a general clean bill of health resulting.
In July, eight leaders of the economic world met somewhere or other around the outskirts of Japan and might have said something or other. Mori was happy to be the center of their attention. Most people in Japan just shrugged and got on with it. The economy weakened further after that national boost.
November saw ex-respected archaeologist Shinichi Fujimura confess to a shocked academia and the world that all his significant finds in the past were fakes. He had used pieces from his own collection to validate empty digs as being genuine. An observer pointed out that the prime minister was doing the very same thing as he propped up failing companies.
Next year is still in the lap of the gods and the Bush administration; both of which do not confide in this writer. Someone who does is Reiko Yamamoto, an interpreter who interfaces at many top bilateral meetings between corporate and political clients. She believes that this coming year will create consolidation on three major fronts; the consolidation of industries and corporations through M&A will accelerate; the weakening political opposition will consolidate the voters behind the only big game left in town and the people will consolidate their lifestyles down to a trendy new term, "simple life"; meaning less frills and more recycling and most strident of all, less spending.
Sometimes even a reporter must stop hiding behind others' forecasts and make an informed one instead. From where I stand in Japan, 2001 will be a continuation of the same trait of the blind following the blind into a sticky ditch. It is like a huge tanker or liner coming into dock and needs much time to effect halt or departure. However, once firm ground is reestablished in better ways, then the Japanese vessel will get under way and go like clockwork. They call it pragmatism.
In the early hours of the New Year, many Japanese will be watching an Israeli movie on an NHK channel about a family commemorating the Feast of Passover, when a repressed people were led by a great man into anew land overflowing with milk and honey, and were content to make sacrifices and suffer unleavened bread to get there. Perhaps some insomniac Japanese politician may be watching.
