WASHINGTON, Sept. 16 (UPI) -- It's all-but-official. Democratic activists, political junkies, and most nervously, nine declared Democratic candidates for president have been waiting to see whether retired four-star Gen. Wesley Clark would throw his hat in the ring for President.
Now that he's in, Democrats are buzzing about the potential of a Clark candidacy because he fills a void that none of the other candidates can fill -- real gravitas on national security. He is the only challenger who can go head to head with President Bush on defense, and he alone can aggressively elucidate his opposition to the war in Iraq without sounding like a pacifist.
Clark's challenge is to steer clear of the traps into which most insurgent, non-traditional candidates typically fall. Iconoclastic candidates often come out of the starting gate with a bang but quickly stumble and become relegated to the back of the pack well before the wire.
Independent Ross Perot thought he could run his presidential campaign like a business. By Election Day 1992, his campaign organization was in total disarray and the candidate was so frazzled that he quit the race only to get back in again -- not exactly the leadership quality voters seek in a president. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger burst into the California governor's race with guns a-blazing. After a handful of missteps, the Terminator now looks like a wimp for skipping out on debates and being vague on policy details.
If Clark thinks he can run his campaign like a military operation, he is doomed.
Just as the U.S. military is ill-equipped to build democratic institutions in Iraq, the military model is inept against the combined forces of Iowa caucus-goers, NAACP boycotts of South Carolina, and the nattering media. If Clark is to be successful, he needs a seasoned, top-notch political team to guide him through the minefields of a campaign.
That said, a Clark candidacy will have a dramatic impact on the race.
For Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., one of the main credentials of his campaign, his active duty war record, is nullified. Clark's 33 years in the military and command of NATO forces easily trumps Kerry's bronze star in Vietnam.
Sens. John Edwards, D-N.C., and Bob Graham, D-Fla., can no longer simply play the southern strategy to win. Each of those candidates, hoping for a muddled outcome from the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, were looking to break out of the pack in South Carolina. Clark, an Arkansas native with a military background, may quickly become the candidate of the South.
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., is counting on winning the support of organized labor. However, one of the most prominent and politically savvy unions, the Service Employee International Union, is reportedly intrigued by the Clark candidacy. If SEIU endorses Clark, it could start an avalanche of labor support away from Gephardt.
Former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, the only credible African-American in the race, will have a new force to compete with for minority support. Clark's career in the military makes him the only serious candidate who can boast about working regularly with African-Americans, and his military background makes him appealing to minorities who make up a disproportionate share of the armed forces.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., has positioned himself as the lone moderate in the race. Edwards and Graham may disagree with that characterization, but it will be hard for Lieberman to convince centrist Democrats that he is the only alternative once Clark enters the race.
Of all the Democrats in the race, it is former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean who is the biggest loser.
Recognizing the damage he could cause to his own aspirations, Dean went out of his way to court Clark as a possible running mate. First, Dean is the frontrunner and the last thing he needs is a new variable in the race. Beyond that, both candidates share the same outsider quality and will compete for the same grassroots army on the internet. Dean's opposition to the war, though popular among many Democrats, comes across as knee-jerk. Clark's opposition is much more palatable to those who opposed the war but are concerned about security.
Dean's courtship will make it difficult for the irascible Dean to roundly criticize Clark later in the race.
One final advantage for Clark is that he is a blank slate. He doesn't have to answer for a lot of complicated votes on controversial issues. He gets to define himself by what he says, not what he has done in the political arena. If he can avoid the pitfalls that trip up most insurgent campaigns, General Wesley Clark will provide a lot of excitement to this race and could win.
-- Jim Kessler is president of the Washington-based consulting firm Definition Strategies and is not affiliated with any presidential candidate. He can be reached at [email protected].
-- United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues.
