Experts: McCain needs big October comeback

WASHINGTON, Oct. 19 (UPI) -- Republican presidential nominee John McCain needs a campaign surge over Democrat Barack Obama ahead of the Nov. 4 U.S. election if he is to win, observers say.

The Chicago Tribune reported Sunday that other successful presidential candidates have similarly trailed toward the end of their respective races. But the newspaper said that for the Arizona senator to win in November he will need an even bigger comeback than Ronald Reagan had in 1980 or Jimmy Carter did in 1976.

Trying to quell a McCain comeback, Obama is using his huge fundraising advantage to overwhelm his rival with television ads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and other so-called must-win states for McCain.

A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates that about one-fifth of voters are undecided or willing to switch allegiances. Frank Newport, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, said McCain is trailing Obama by 2 to 7 percentage points depending upon turnout assumptions.

"You would give the higher probability to Obama winning because he's been ahead in every poll over the last several weeks that we've done," Newport said. "But it's close enough under certain turnout scenarios that you can't rule out that McCain will win."