Exaggerator, winner of the Preakness Stakes and favorite in the Belmont Stakes, heads for the track the morning before the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on Friday in Elmont, N.Y. Photo by Mark Abraham/UPI |
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ELMONT, N.Y., June 10 (UPI) -- Exaggerator is the most accomplished of the 13 horses in the field, winner of the Preakness and Santa Anita Derby and second to Nyquist in the Kentucky Derby. With Nyquist out, he is the one to beat in this 1 1/2-miles third leg of the Triple Crown. The key is how the pace of the race shapes up.
Jockey Kent Desormeaux said the No. 11 gate gives him a chance to drop Exaggerator in behind the early speed -- likely Gettysburg and a few others -- and wait to push the button at whatever he judges to be the right time. That's a sound, albeit vague, plan. If it works, Exaggerator would be hitting the front as the field hits the stretch. He might find company along the way in Stradivari and Destin, whose past performances indicate a similar running style and who also could benefit from a brisk early pace.
BUT ... there are at least six confirmed late-runners in this field, all of whom will be counting on running down a tired Exaggerator. Let's look at:
1. Destin. He finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby, without much late punch. He won the Tampa Bay Derby from just off the pace and will benefit from being relatively lightly raced by trainer Todd Pletcher. He could improve on the Derby showing.
2. Stradiveri. He and Destin could be in the mix during the first mile and he could persevere to equal or better his fourth-place showing in the Preakness. He's making only his fifth career start and third of the year, also for Pletcher.
3. Cherry Wine. He was gobbling up ground in the stretch in both the Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Preakness, finishing third and second in those races. He did not run in the Derby, just missing the cut. Dale Romans has been talking up his other starter, Blue Grass winner Brody's Cause, but he wasn't doing much in the stretch run at Churchill Downs.
4. Creator. Win Star Farms moved Gettysburg to trainer Steve Asmussen's barn so he could enter that one as a pacemaker for Creator. That shows some real confidence in Creator, who finished 13th in the Derby with excuses after winning the Arkansas Derby.
Among the others: There are some mystery horses. Owner Charles Fipke and trainer Dallas Stewart entered Seeking the Soul and Forever d'Oro. Both are recent maiden winners and who knows what they will do? The Japanese runner, Lani, jumped up to finish fifth in the Preakness and, if he ever gets a good start, could keep on going for 1 1/2 miles.
Long shot special: Stradivari. The Medaglia d'Oro colt looked like a superstar in his first three career starts and could get a very favorable trip here. He's only 5-1 on the morning line, so not that much of a long shot. But a victory would be sweet music for his backers.
So. I'm not convinced about Nyquist as the winner, primarily because he's had so many hard races in close order. But he can't be dismissed, either, as trainer Keith Asmussen points to his remarkable powers of recovery from each effort. So let's make a $12 investment in a dime superfecta box using 2-Destin, 3-Cherry Wine, 5-Stradivari, 11-Exaggerator and 13-Creator. I might use the Jude Feld system and put $5 win, $10 to show on Stradivari, just so I can say I did when he's a superstar by Breeders' Cup time.
Don't bet more than you can afford to lose!
