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Analysis: Israel ponders Gaza escalation

By JOSHUA BRILLIANT, UPI Israel Correspondent

JERUSALEM, Nov. 24 (UPI) -- Israel's Political-Security Cabinet instructed the military to present plans for, "a more extensive operation" in the Gaza Strip to stop rocket attacks and arms smuggling.

The order was issued as more Palestinian Qassam rockets were fired on the town of Sderot, near the Gaza Strip. The army spokesman reckoned that this month Palestinians fired 157 rockets of which 91 made it to the border. Two Israelis were killed in Sderot in the past week.

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During the recent Lebanon War, Hezbollah fired some 4,000 short-range rockets that led an estimated 350,000 Israelis to leave their homes. The Israeli military failed to stop those attacks and realized the rockets have become a strategic weapon.

Palestinians maintain Israel is still occupying Gaza, albeit differently than the way it had occupied it before last year's withdrawal.

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The head of the Palestinian president's press office, Mohamed Edwan, said Israeli troops surround Gaza, its aircraft fly over it, and it has closed the crossing to Egypt stranding thousands of people.

"Some of those who shelled these Qassam rockets are ... provoking Israel, but Israel is very much provoking them because of all kinds of occupation and terror actions against Palestinian civilians. Do not forget the Beit Hanoun massacre," he said. Edwan was referring to the shelling of that town a fortnight ago. Israel said it wanted to hit a Qasam rocket launching area but that a faulty circuit board caused the cannon to hit the town. Twenty people were killed.

The Palestinian Maan news agency Wednesday quoted medical sources as saying 105 Palestinians were killed in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of November. That brought the Palestinian death toll, since June, to 400. In June, Palestinian militants crossed into Israel and kidnapped Cpl. Gilad Shalit sparking intensified fighting.

Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Sunday told the Cabinet that in the past three and a half months Israel killed some 370 armed Palestinians.

The Israelis insist they pulled out from Gaza, completely. Gaza is not under occupation and there is no justification for continued attacks from there.

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They note that they regretted attacks in which innocent civilians were hit but that Palestinian attackers deliberately target Israeli civilians.

"No state would have put up with a situation...whereby crossing a road in one of its cities, or going to the grocery store, would become a bloody poker (move)," wrote Ha'aretz columnist Yoel Markus.

The Israelis retaliated with raids into Beit Hanoun and other areas. It controls a sand dune area that is closest to Ashkelon and strategic Israeli sites including a power plant and a fuel dumps.

Tank and infantry battalions are now inside the Strip clearing vegetation and structures. Then it would easier to monitor movements there. One force Wednesday killed a Palestinian militant and arrested another who tried to launch a rocket. The arrest and interrogation could produce intelligence Israel would need for further operations.

Nevertheless Israel's major concern in the military buildup going on in Gaza. It says arms are smuggled there in tunnels from the Sinai, and by sea.

The head of the Shabak security service, Yuval Diskin, last week told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that in the past year the Palestinians have smuggled into the Gaza Strip some 33 tons of military grade TNT, 20,000 assault rifles, 12 anti-aircraft shoulder fired missiles, 410 anti tank rockets with 95 anti tank rocket launches. They also smuggled Grad rockets, he said.

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The Israelis remember all too well that their failure to stop Hezbollah's buildup in southern Lebanon led suddenly made them face thousands of rockets and well-entrenched fortified bunkers. They do not want a repetition in Gaza.

Military Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. Dani Halutz Sunday told the cabinet the buildup was more disconcerting than the rocket attacks.

And so, for the time being, the Political-Security Cabinet instructed the army, "To continue countermeasures against all stages of missile launching activity, including know-how, production, storage and firing."

In what seemed be a reference to more targeted killings the Cabinet talked of "Specific countermeasures against those actively involved in terrorist operations." Sunday Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer noted that when he had been defense minister, "Targeted killings of all Hamas leaders and not just the activists in the field produced results ... such activity should be resumed."

Israel might also hit "Hamas institutions in the Gaza Strip," but Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz would first have to specifically approve that.

Meanwhile Israel will try to persuade Egypt to increase its efforts to stop the arms smuggling. According to Diskin the Egyptians know the "smuggling barons'" identities but do not do enough to stop them.

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It is also expected to discuss the money smuggling, sometimes in suitcases, through the Rafah Crossing under the eyes of European Union monitors. Diskin estimated that $50 million to $70 million have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip to finance Hamas activities.

Militants reportedly went to Syria and Iran for training then returned to Gaza.

The cabinet statement thus said Israel would "continue diplomatic efforts and cooperation with Egypt and the international community to confront the strengthening of terrorist forces in the Gaza Strip...as well as the transfer of know-how and resources into the Strip."

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