WASHINGTON, Feb. 13 (UPI) -- There is no doubt that whether the United States stays in Iraq or leaves, whether Iraq stabilizes or not, the nations on its borders will continue to help shape its future as well as be subjected to its fate. It is therefore in America's best interest to encourage its Arab allies in the region to participate and support the stabilization and democratization of Iraq.
Within Iraq, the electoral process has recently demonstrated the importance of sectarianism and religious affiliation. For the first time in Iraq's modern history, the Shiite majority will rule, a feat the United States can be proud of as these results are the embodiment of the democratic process. The success of the Shiite majority in Iraq has nevertheless created a great deal of anxiety in neighboring Sunni majority countries.
First, they fear that their own Shiite minorities will demand greater rights more aggressively, but more importantly, Sunni majority countries are concerned with the apparent desire of Shiite leaders in Iraq to promote their religious affiliation over their national identity. This concern primarily stems from the fact that many Shiite leaders in positions of power in Iraq today were sheltered by Iran during the Saddam era and have developed strong personal and political relations with Iran's leadership.
The concern therefore becomes one of influence and direction: will Iraq's new rulers lean towards an Arab Iraq or a Farsi Iraq? Will the Shiite ruling elite in Iraq further an Iraqi agenda or an Iranian one?
This has implications not only for Iraq and Iran, but for Syria and Lebanon, and most Gulf Arab countries with Shiite minority populations. This uncertainty could lead some to work against the stabilization of Iraq in an attempt to preemptively counter what they see as significant and worrisome gains by Iran. This would at best lead to further setbacks for the United States and much further suffering for the Iraqi people and at worse an open civil war on Iraqi soil with all its horrors and destabilizing effects for the region.
It is therefore crucial for the United States to aggressively promote the advice and involvement of Iraq's neighbors in Iraq's stabilization process, and offer them a series of incentives, military and security, in exchange for their active diplomatic involvement with Iraq. The United States must convince its Arab allies that it is in their interest not to see Iraq deteriorate, and that they have a vested interest in its survival as one nation.
Syria stands out as an exception amongst its neighbors and is afflicted with its own complications. While the United States has rightfully been applying strong pressure on the Assad regime with regards to Lebanon and the Hariri assassination, Syria, by definition, can still be an active partner in the overall stabilization effort in Iraq.
While international pressure has had some influence on Syria, the question remains what Syria has to do in order to get in line with international expectations. Too much pressure on Assad could lead to the collapse of the Syrian regime, adding further instability in Iraq, providing additional maneuvering room for militant Islamists and potentially creating the necessary environment for further destabilization of the region.
On the other hand, if such pressure compels President Assad to make decisions that are in the interest of his own people, the region and the international community, he should be given the room to survive. Our policy in the first instance should therefore be to change Syrian actions with regard to Iraq, the war on terrorism, Lebanon and democratic reform, not regime change per se. Conversely, the United States needs to be clear in its expectations of Syria as well.
As long as the United States is not successful in making the stabilization and democratization of Iraq a truly regional one, it runs the risk of loosing additional American and Iraqi lives, a great deal more of its diminishing political capital in the region as well as influential friends in the Middle East. There is no doubt that the United States' effort in Iraq is at a critical junction and that we will be judged in the region on our ability to bring about a stable and prosperous Iraq. We must remain engaged, but we cannot do it without the help and support of our Arab friends in the region.
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(Edward Gabriel is a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco and is currently a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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Hiam Nawas is an analyst based in Washington.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
