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Experts say riots unlikely in Germany

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

KEHL AM RHEIN, Germany, Nov. 8 (UPI) -- German officials are looking into whether the violence that is wracking France can spread to their country.

Thousands of burned cars, one person dead, several injured protesters and police officers and a nationwide hysteria: The violence in France that began in the impoverished Paris suburbs has spread into the country, as far as Marseille, Lille and Strasbourg. The Alsatian city, right on the Franco-German border, not only has a 470-foot Gothic cathedral and picturesque narrow alleys that are lined with excellent restaurants, it also has social hot spots like the quarters of Hautepierre, Neuhof and Meinau.

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Roughly 30 cars and an old warehouse were set on fire there Sunday night, but there have been no open confrontations. The fires slightly receded the following night, with 20 cars torched. The situation in Strasbourg was not as dramatic, but on Monday disguised youths threw stones at a German TV crew and chased it out of their social welfare quarter in Hautepierre. In Strasbourg, however, officials are experienced in dealing with vandalizing youths: Cars burn traditionally here on new-year's eve, with the 2005 celebration accompanied by nearly 60 torched cars.

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In Kehl am Rhein, Germany, which lies just a stone's throw from the French border and Strasbourg, police chief Juergen Neff was not worried the violence will spread to his city.

"We have close contacts to French officials, and I am confident that the danger is limited to Strasbourg," he said. "The riots are based on French youths protesting against the French government."

But Kehl has no social hot spots like Paris, Strasbourg or Berlin.

In the German capital and in Bremen, youths Sunday night set on fire automobiles, trash cans and a closed-off building, resulting in a front-page photo in the mass-circulation Bild newspaper of a burned-out car skeleton. Officials have vowed to investigate whether the incidents are in any way linked to the malaise that has gripped the youths in France.

Germany is home to Europe's second-largest Muslim population, an estimated 3.7 million. It has a 2 million Turks, many of who are living in predominantly ethnic quarters such as Kreuzberg and Neukölln in Berlin, or Altona in Hamburg. Here, unemployment rates are high and one in four children ends up leaving school without a diploma.

Several politicians, including designated Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, have warned the country might not be immune to France-like unrest. Experts say, however, such widespread violence are unlikely in Germany.

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"I would rule out such riots for Berlin," Guenter Piening, Berlin's integration commissioner, told United Press International in a telephone interview on Tuesday. "Yes, there might be individuals who commit copy-cat crimes. But organized, large-scale riots are not possible because the youths in Berlin do not have that sense of hopelessness that the French young people have."

Berlin, however, does have its annual outbreaks of civil unrest: The traditional Labor Day demonstration in Berlin often ends in cars being set ablaze and clashes between the police and youth.

Piening said Berlin's social network combats these conflicts at the core.

"We keep close contacts with the youths through immigrant organizations and encourage their clubs and organizations with financial means," he said. "We have had considerable success in Berlin. The last Labor Day protests have been calmer than ever."

In Germany, even the second generation of immigrants often speaks its native language only. Born in Germany doesn't mean you're a German citizen -- the Turkish or former Yugoslav immigrants have so far lacked a sense of entitlement. Berlin has only recently opened up easier access to German citizenship and naturalization. So far, immigrant violence has centered on conflicts related to the culture of the homeland: Clashes of violent Turkish and Kurdish gangs and between citizens of former Yugoslavia are much more common than young Muslims taking to the streets seeking more social justice. One of the big problems has been the sub-legal systems that have been created in predominantly Muslim neighborhoods in Berlin and Hamburg, where second-generation Turkish women have been killed by their own family members for leading an all-too Western lifestyle.

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Wilhelm Heitmeyer, head of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Research on Conflict and Violence at Bielefeld University, said the overall conditions in Germany do not foster wide-spread riots.

"We don't yet have a degree of social marginalization and hopelessness similar to France's," he told UPI in a telephone interview. "We don't have the outskirt ghettos and our police forces tend to react in reasonable and calm ways."

He said, however, there is much room for improvement of Germany's integration policy.

"We need measures to improve their chances to find a job and we need a better city planning policy to stop processes of segregation," he said. "The danger is that entire city quarters are increasingly populated by migrants. Non-nationals are not eligible to vote; the danger is that politicians might neglect those districts as a consequence."

Heitmeyer said cities with large immigrant populations need cross-border commuters who are respected in both societies to increase direct contacts between the two worlds.

"After all, a successful integration policy is largely based on the creation of mutual respect," he said.

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