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Analysis: Brazilian pre-campaign posturing

By CARMEN GENTILE

RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov. 16 (UPI) -- Leaders in Brazil's ruling Workers' Party, or PT, Tuesday accused former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso of indulging in a little pre-campaign rhetoric.

Even though the race is still two years away, PT President Jose Genoino is trying to prevent Cardoso from getting an early leg up on the campaign trail while taking shots at current Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio da Silva.

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On Monday, Cardoso said from London, where he was attending a U.N. seminar, that he was disappointed with the progress of the Lula administration on Brazil's social front, an area the left-wing president promised to improve during the 2002 election.

"I've been out of the country for 40 days, and I don't know if there have been any miracles, but if not, the (administration's) social plan has disappointed me," said Cardoso.

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Genoino rose to the president and PT's defense Tuesday noting the work of Lula's hunger eradication program Zero Fome (Zero Hunger), which has provided food for 1 million Brazilians this year, though it got off to a slow start.

He also noted work of national programs like literacy and assistance for the elderly as proof of Lula's commitment to social projects.

"FHC (Cardoso) is just doing a little pre-campaigning," remarked Genoino on the ex-president's comments.

There's been speculation in recent months that the two-term (1995-2002) former leader would throw his hat back in the political ring for the 2006 election, which is permitted by Brazilian law.

In April, Cardoso first tried to squash rumors that he was interested in another crack at Brazil's highest office, telling reporters outright that he was "not a candidate" and was enjoying private life.

Despite his assertion, Cardoso often appears in the political spotlight, keeping his name in the news with the occasional criticism of the Lula administration.

Though his administration finished on a down note -- rising inflation and joblessness being among the factors causing Brazil's economic decline since 2002 -- Cardoso is credited by some for steering the continent's largest economy in the right direction following years of mismanagement.

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In addition to his public condemnation of Lula, a leading news magazine reported earlier this year that a group of Cardoso supporters was working toward his return, calling their effort "Project Phoenix," named after the mythical bird that is reborn from its own ashes.

These days Cardoso appears to be darting the issue, never telling reporters outright he's planning his candidacy. However, his between-the-lines message reads as if he's seriously entertaining the idea.

When a reporter in London asked him if he was going to run, Cardoso said his center-right Social Democratic Party, or PSDB, has room to choose who they want to run against the president.

He put forward a number of potential candidates -- though he didn't mention himself among them -- including Sao Paulo state Gov. Geraldo Alckmin, who some consider a top prospect to challenge Lula.

Alckmin's stock as a candidate for 2006 rose last month when the PSDB candidate for mayor, former health minister and presidential hopeful Jose Serra, wrestled control of Sao Paulo from PT incumbent Marta Suplicy. The win fueled speculation among the opposition that if the country's largest city voted out the PT, then perhaps Lula could be defeated at well.

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Serra's victory appeared to breathe new life into Brazil's other opposition parties. Sen. Jorge Bornhausen, the leader of the right-wing Liberal Front Party, or PFL, said last week that his party and the PSDB were prepared to join forces and take on the president.

Among the possible candidates the senator suggested were Alckmin and Rio de Janeiro Mayor Cesar Maia, hailing from the PFL.

These days, Lula is struggling to keep his own ruling coalition intact with less than two years to go before the 2006 elections.

Both the Popular Socialist Party and Democratic Movement Party appear ready to leave the PT-led alliance before the end of the year.

After assuming office in January 2003, Lula cobbled together a broad base of parties from the left, right and center. He has made forays to the left when creating new social programs such as nationwide hunger eradication, but at the same time, his fiscal policy has been conservative to keep inflation down while reducing unemployment.

Coalition building is extremely important in Brazilian politics, though creates an array of ultimately unfulfilling relationships among parties which sometimes team up to promote one cause but cannot agree on others.

But with more than 20 political parties spanning the political spectrum represented in the Congress, alliances seem necessary for lawmakers to successfully pass any legislation. Those kinds of hindrances in recent months helped provide the ammunition Cardoso needed to attack the president for not making good on past campaign promises.

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Cardoso could be just testing the waters for himself and the PSDB, which is now the leading opposition party in the country. Some analysts think that barring a political or economic catastrophe in the next two years, Lula should be re-elected with ease.

But, said the ex-president, "No one is unbeatable in life."

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