NOAA seasonal outlook for U.S. calls for warmer spring, below-average flood risk

March 21 (UPI) -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a warmer-than-average spring for most of the United States.

NOAA forecasters in a statement on Thursday said most of the continental United States and Alaska can expect above-average temperatures from April through June, while historically low winter snow means a below-average flood risk across the country.

"Climate change is affecting the timing, intensity and duration of weather events in the United States," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a release. "The spring outlook is one of the many tools NOAA provides to help communities prepare for what's ahead."

The Great Lakes region, Pacific Northwest and Northwest Alaska have the highest chance of experiencing above-average temperatures, with higher-than-average precipitation in parts of the central Great Plains, the southeast and southern Alaska, according to NOAA.

El Niño-fueled rainfall across the Gulf Coast from this winter suggests more improved drought conditions over last year, although almost 20% of the United States and Puerto Rico continue to experience drought.

Last year, drought conditions affected agriculture in several Midwest states. The drought is expected to expand through portions of the Rocky Mountains and Plains regions.

The overall threat of flooding is low due to the above-average temperatures, with moderate flooding expected in flood-prone areas of the Midwest and South. Less snow and precipitation from the winter suggests a return of the historically low flow conditions seen last year in some parts of the Mississippi River.

Approximately 133 million people across the United States face some risk of flooding, with about 400,000 at risk for moderate flooding.

Ed Clark, director of NOAA's National Water Center, said in the release that this would be the first spring outlook since 2021 that predicted no major flood risk anywhere in the United States.

"Of growing concern will be the potentially low flows on the Mississippi River this summer into fall due to well-below snowpack and precipitation in most of the Northern Plains and Midwest," Clark said. "This could have potential impacts on those navigation and commercial interests that depend on water from the Mississippi River."

The spring forecast comes after the World Meteorological Organizations declared Tuesday that 2023 was the hottest year on record, along with the warmest 10-year stretch ever recorded.

The NOAA in September released a report that said climate disasters cost the United States about $2.6 trillion in total costs over the past $40 years.

In 2023 alone, there were 25 climate disasters, each exceeding $1 billion in damages, which killed 253 people.