Tropical Storm Philippe to smack northern New England, Atlantic Canada

Tropical Storm Philippe will undergo a transition to more of a winter-style storm, but it will pack a powerful punch as it strikes in the zone from Down East Maine to New Brunswick and southern Nova Scotia this weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

The potent storm will unleash torrential rain, high winds and coastal flooding as it rolls northwestward toward the region this weekend.

As of Thursday afternoon, Tropical Storm Philippe was located a little over 400 miles to the south of Bermuda and was packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Philippe was moving north at 13 mph. The system was still poorly organized with the bulk of the drenching and gusty thunderstorms occurring to the east of the center.

This image of Tropical Storm Philippe was captured on Oct. 5, 2023, when the storm was about 500 miles to the south of Bermuda (upper center). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealView&trade Satellite)

As accurately predicted by AccuWeather, Philippe has made a northward turn after bringing torrential rain, flash flooding, mudslides and washouts to parts of the Leeward Islands earlier this week. Philippe will pass to the west of Bermuda as a tropical storm, but it will be close enough to bring the small group of islands in the west-central Atlantic rough seas, heavy rain and strong winds late Thursday night and Friday.

"As Philippe moves northward in the short term, some strengthening is possible, and especially if thunderstorms can better wrap around the center of the storm," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Beyond Bermuda, the situation is complex, but Philippe will interact with progressively cooler waters, a non-tropical storm and an approaching cold front Friday night and this weekend. The latest AccuWeather Eye Path® takes Philippe inland near the Maine and New Brunswick border late Saturday night to Sunday morning.

Due to the anticipated impacts of heavy rainfall and gusty winds, Philippe has been rated "less than one" on the AccuWeather RealImpact&trade Scale for Hurricanes in New England and Atlantic Canada.

Phillipe is not likely to have the same level of impact on Atlantic Canada and Maine that Lee did a few weeks ago. Lee was once a powerful Category 5 hurricane with winds of 165 mph. Even though Lee lost a considerable amount of wind intensity prior to landfall in New Brunswick, it still had plenty of leftover energy, causing it to stir angry seas and heavy rainfall. More than 200,000 utility customers lost power in Nova Scotia alone from Lee.

Phillipe is a much less intense system when compared to Lee, but its interaction with a non-tropical system will cause it to unleash a considerable amount of rain.

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"Because of Philippe's track and its transition upon nearing North America, the strongest winds capable of causing property damage and power outages will be near and to the northeast of the center as it moves ashore from late Saturday to early Sunday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

A broad zone of tropical-storm-force wind gusts, ranging from 40 to 60 mph (64 to 97 km/h) will extend from northeastern Maine through much of the Gulf of St. Lawrence region in Canada. The AccuWeather Local StormMax&trade for Philippe in Maine and Atlantic Canada is 70 mph (113 km/h), which is just shy of hurricane strength.

The bulk of the rain associated directly with Philippe will focus from Maine to southeastern Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. A general 1-4 inches of rain will fall in this area with locally higher amounts. Because the landscape is still fairly wet following recent storms, quick runoff can lead to flash flooding, mudslides, washouts and flooding in urban areas and along small streams.

The combination of heavy rain, strong winds and above-normal tides can make for nasty travel conditions around Halifax, Nova Scotia, and Saint John, New Brunswick.

By far, the most far-reaching impact from Philippe will be its drenching rainfall. Because of an approaching cold front, the southwestern zone of heavy rain is likely to take on more of a banded structure than what typically occurs from a single tropical storm pushing into the Northeast. Because of that, bands of heavy rain will soak some communities while others will experience little to no rain, rather than a solid shield of drenching rain occurring to the north and west of the storm.

It is possible that the rain may extend as far to the west as part of southeastern Massachusetts as Phillipe and its tag-along second storm roll northward on Saturday. Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, will be near the edge of heavy rain and very little rain.

Farther to the west over the rest of New England and the upper portion of the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S., bands of rain will develop, more so from the approaching cold front.

As this front encounters moisture from the Atlantic, some of the rain bands will become enhanced to the point where torrential downpours may lead to flash flooding in narrow zones.

One such band where 2-4 inches of rain will likely fall is in parts of eastern upstate New York, Long Island, western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, Vermont and southern Quebec, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. Just last week, on Friday, torrential rain occurred in part of this zone including a large portion of the New York City metro area. The result was widespread flash flooding and major travel chaos.

Even though the rain in this area on Saturday is not likely to be as intense as a week ago, it may not take as much rain to produce rapid runoff and flash flooding in some cases.

"The risk of serious flooding will be increased for locations that have already had heavy rainfall in recent weeks and where the ground is already saturated, especially if downpours persist over these same areas," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.

"While we expect the best chance of flooding this time will be north and east of New York City, should extreme rainfall rates above 1 inch per hour occur in urban areas, such as New York City area, flash flooding with rapidly rising water can quickly escalate into a life-threatening situation in a matter of minutes, as urban environments have many impervious surfaces such as sidewalks and streets which promotes greater runoff," Porter explained.

The heaviest rain will fall in southern Quebec, where the front and Philippe will become intertwined. A general zone of 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) of rain will fall in this area, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax&trade of 10 inches (250 mm). Montreal and Quebec City may fall within the zone of the heaviest rain and could endure significant flash flooding.

Philippe's interaction with the jet stream will lead to an extended period of November-like weather for much of the Northeast and Atlantic Canada next week.

Gusty west to northwest winds will add to the chill. This follows an extended period of late summerlike conditions much of this week.

Snow is even in the AccuWeather forecast for parts of Quebec and upstate New York.

As far as tropical development elsewhere over the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching two areas in the upcoming week or so.

One area will be associated with a disturbance that moves off the coast of Africa this weekend and could evolve toward the middle of next week over the central Atlantic. Another zone will be close to the U.S. and more specifically over the Gulf of Mexico later next week. This area may evolve from energy that spills across Mexico from tropical activity in the Pacific.