Tampa Bay Buccaneers-St. Louis Rams: Who will win Thursday Night Football game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8): Thursday Night Football preview

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, at Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis - TV: NFL Network

*TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson

*Keys to the game: QB Case Keenum claims the short week and condensed preparation simplifies things for him and eliminates the so-called ghosts that appear with more practice days. Offensive coordinator Rob Boras is a disciple of Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith and should have Keenum well-practiced against the Tampa 2 scheme. The meal ticket for the Rams, even on a short week, is RB Todd Gurley. However, Tampa's secondary has been whittled by even weak passing teams, allowing 26 touchdown passes and a completion percentage of 68.7.

Third downs remain the unsolved riddle for the Rams on offense. St. Louis is the worst in the NFL at 25.3 percent conversions. Even so, the Bucs are 32nd in third-down defense, meaning Keenum and Gurley both will get chances to move the chains.

Rams coach Jeff Fisher praised Bucs rookie QB Jameis Winston for his development and specifically mentioned getting it done on third down. He's aided by the NFL's No. 2-ranked rushing offense but also the outside receivers St. Louis has failed to develop. WR Mike Evans will be his preferred option with Vincent Jackson (knee) hurting, but the Rams are openly discussing plans to double the second-year wideout. The Bucs can preserve their own defense by hammering the ball with RB Doug Martin. The Rams allowed more than 4.1 yards per carry to five of their past six opponents.

*Matchup to watch - Gurley vs. Bucs LB Lavonte David: Boras called David a game-wrecker, but it's Gurley who needs only 25 yards to become the first Rams rookie to reach the 1,000-yard rushing mark since Hall of Famer Jerome Bettis in 1993.

*Player spotlight - Bucs WRs Dontaae Dye and Adam Humphries: The undrafted duo will be pushed into key snaps as Jackson limped off last week and might not play again this season. Humphries caught a 6-yard touchdown last week and Dye snagged a 16-yard reception.

*Fast facts: The Bucs have 20 turnovers, 21 takeaways. The Rams have 20 takeaways, 21 turnovers. ... The Bucs have 143 penalties this season and average 10.2 per game on the road. OT Gosder Cherilus has a team-high 14 penalties, not including four declined.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Bucs ride the league's second-ranked running back, Doug Martin, to a close victory by executing in the fourth quarter.

*Our pick: Buccaneers 26-22.