Nuclear horror scenarios for Germany

BERLIN, Sept. 28 (UPI) -- Chernobyl-like disasters at Germany's most vulnerable reactors could render parts of the country uninhabitable for decades, Greenpeace has warned.

The environmental organization has asked meteorologists at a university in Vienna to simulate the aftermaths of major incidents at three German reactors. Chernobyl-like disasters at Kruemmel, Isar 1 and Biblis B -- three of Germany's most incident-prone reactors, critics say -- could send a deadly nuclear cloud across Germany, the scientists found.

In the case of a Chernobyl-like disaster at Kruemmel, a reactor south of Hamburg, unfavorable weather conditions could render large parts of northeastern Germany, including Berlin, uninhabitable for decades, the group warned.

"An estimated 4.7 million people would have to be resettled in this scenario," Greenpeace writes in a news release.

Using weather data from 1995, the scientists from Vienna calculated the path the radioactivity would take in the 10 days after the incident, based on eight different wind direction scenarios.

It has to be noted, however, that the scenarios authored by the Vienna scientists calculate with the worst possible weather conditions: Mild winds blowing steadily in one direction.

Steady winds focus the radioactivity into a tighter, more deadly cloud that devastates a limited region, instead of fluctuating winds, which spread the isotopes, affecting a greater area but to a lesser degree. The latter was the case after Chernobyl.

Greenpeace published the scientists' fallout maps on its Web site this week, a few days before the German Cabinet led by Chancellor Angela Merkel Tuesday gave the green light to extend the running times of Germany's 17 reactors by an average of 14 years beyond their previously scheduled phase-out date in 2021.

The government says it wants to keep nuclear in the mix as a stable, reliable and cost-effective energy source until renewables can take over completely but the opposition and environmental groups are fuming. Greenpeace, well aware that nuclear power is unpopular in Germany, Tuesday organized anti-nuclear protests at all German reactor sites.

Germany's utilities argue that the likelihood of Chernobyl-like incidents at German reactors goes toward zero. A system of several, interlinked emergency systems would prevent such an accident, they say.

Yet while the International Atomic Energy Agency rates German reactors as among the safest in the world, they're certainly not immune to possible problems.

Vattenfall's 25-year-old Kruemmel reactor was shut down last summer after a transformer short-circuited. The plant had only been operating for a few weeks after it was taken off the grid for two years following a fire in another transformer.

Biblis B, operated by German energy giant RWE, is one of the country's oldest reactors and has had to report dozens of incidents -- albeit minor ones -- during the past years.

It's not only incidents that worry Greenpeace. The group has highlighted the possibility of a terror attack.

The group commissioned a study on the effects of mobile anti-tank missile systems used by terrorists targeting nuclear power plants. Unveiled earlier this month, it claims that terrorists could use the relatively small and mobile Russian-made Korent missile system, for example, to penetrate the outer shell of most German reactors.

Experts have in the past warned that Germany's reactors wouldn't withstand a terrorist attack with a passenger plane. Germany's Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen as a consequence urged the utilities to boost the outer shells of their reactors so they can take the impact of an incoming Airbus A320.