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Another day, another oil price rally

Extended gains may be indicative of a shift in market sentiment.

By Daniel J. Graeber
Rally in crude oil prices extends as market sentiment shifts to bullish optimism in the wake of last week's production proposal from OPEC. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI
Rally in crude oil prices extends as market sentiment shifts to bullish optimism in the wake of last week's production proposal from OPEC. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI | License Photo

Crude oil prices rallied strongly at the start of trading Thursday on the back of shifting sentiment in the wake of last week's OPEC agreement in Algeria.

As has been the trend, crude oil prices faltered somewhat in overnight trading before shifting to massive gains at the start of the trading day in New York. The price for crude oil moved sharply higher in early-week sessions on industry data showing a heavy draw on the amount of oil held in storage in the United States. Formal data published later in the trading day Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration supported the notion the supply-side pressures that dragged oil to historic lows early this year have vanished.

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Industry analysts said next week's indicators on U.S. inventories may be even more bullish than this week's. The price for Brent crude oil started the trading day in New York up 1.1 percent to $52.43 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for crude oil, joined the $50-club by gaining 1 percent at the open to $50.35 per barrel.

A research note from brokerage firm PVM finds the market has "faith" that an agreement last week in Algeria by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries provides a floor for crude oil prices moving forward.

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"We have been consistently doubtful about last week's agreement as we find it difficult to believe that it will be implemented due to different political and economic interests," the note read. "Whilst we still maintain this view it is not wise to swim against the current."

Nevertheless, Swiss oil-market research group Petromatrix said that, even if OPEC members agree to commitments to keep production stable, global supplies won't be impacted until early next year.

In the United States, where a previous increase in crude oil production pushed the market toward the supply side, oil production declined by 30,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million bpd last week.

On the economic front, the U.S. Labor Department reported the number of people filing first-time claims for unemployment declined 5,000 from the previous week. The less-volatile four-week moving average showed a decline of 2,500. Traders may look to those numbers to get a gauge on what U.S. policymakers may consider for lending rates.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund continued to warn the global economy as a whole was sputtering. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said growth has remained "too low, for low long," adding what benefit this is has gone to a select few.

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