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Economic Outlook: Is this about Alcoa?

By ANTHONY HALL, United Press International
Anthony Hall
Anthony Hall

What passes for normal on Wall Street are the periods of time in which investors make decisions based on the value of the investment.

It is the first day of the new corporate reporting season with the traditional kick-off expected with a report from Alcoa after markets close Tuesday.

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But there is so much financial smog in the atmosphere, it is hard to assess a company on its earnings report anymore.

A few companies -- Apple, General Motors, Ford, McDonald's -- seem to rise above the cloud of uncertainty. Banks, by definition, cannot, as hundreds of new rules or rule reviews required by the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul act have yet to be written, challenged, appealed and tossed or written, revisited and revised.

In addition, banks in Europe are in flux, many holding on while politicians decide their fate.

European leaders are discussing how much to help banks recapitalize and how to restructure Greece's debt. In the meantime, Slovakia is so close to the wire on expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility that Prime Minister Iveta Radicova has said she would step down if the measure does not pass. That means, some believe, she will be out of a job soon.

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Wait -- wasn't Alcoa the point of the discussion here? Distracted again?

The future direction of hundreds of firms, Alcoa in the mix somewhere, hang on the fate of an effort in the U.S. Senate to declare China a currency manipulator. There is some pent up frustration among members of the Senate behind that effort, but many are asking if a trade war is the right way to go. The Wall Street Journal recently voted no in an editorial. During a downturn, a war that slows commerce is a bad idea, period.

University of Maryland economist Peter Morici, meanwhile, says "Man up, Washington," but not in so many words.

Rather, he says, "The China Currency Bill is the most significant jobs bill Congress could pass. It enjoys the bi-partisan support of nearly 80 Republican and Democratic senators, yet President Obama and Speaker (John) Boehner oppose it, illustrating both are out of touch with problems besetting the American economy."

The trade deficit is more than an embarrassment, Morici says. To put it one way, "Halving the nearly $600 billion annual trade deficit would create at least 5 million jobs."

It is curious that the president has a stated goal of doubling exports within five years, but rejects the idea that gaining a purchase on the import side of the equation has merit.

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That sounds odd as Republicans look to rebalance the national deficit while summarily dismissing the idea that revenues are part of the equation.

Wait -- investors are still paying attention to Alcoa, right?

Sure. If you insist.

In international markets Tuesday, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 1.95 percent while the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.16 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong added 2.43 percent while the Sensex in India dropped 0.13 percent.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia gained 0.63 percent.

In midday trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index in Britain fell 1.22 percent while the DAX 30 in Germany lost 0.8 percent. The CAC 40 in France dropped 1.1 percent while the Stoxx Europe 600 index shed 0.9 percent.

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