WASHINGTON, May 28 (UPI) -- Efforts by Lakhdar Brahimi, the special United Nations envoy to Baghdad, to identify leaders able to guide the new Iraqi government -- one that will take the country into its first free elections in 2005 -- are nothing short of Herculean.
The veteran Algerian diplomat's endeavor for the future of a stable, democratic Iraq is indeed a tall order. In short, Brahimi needs to find one president, two vice presidents, a prime minister and 26 cabinet ministers, and all this needs to happen before the June 30 deadline, when the U.S.-led coalition turns over sovereignty to Iraqis.
Such a formidable chore would not be simple in any country in the world, let alone in such a complex, mosaic-like nation such as Iraq. Just think of what it takes to elect a president in the United States.
Besides, of course, identifying potential leaders with "clean" pasts, in Iraq the problem is multiplied tenfold. Thirty years of a brutal Baathist dictatorship has either physically removed potential leaders whom Saddam viewed as a threat to his authority or frightened them away into exile.
Additionally, any candidate, particularly for the top four positions, has to meet a number of complicated criteria and pass approval of the various religious and ethnic communities that Iraq is comprised of.
The Shiites, who encompass about 60 percent of the country's 25 million people, and who for the last three decades have been largely sidelined by Saddam Hussein (not to mention the 100-year Ottoman rule), will insist this time around to have their say and their representation in government. And they are ready to fight for it. And, of course, next-door Iran is keeping a watchful eye out for their Shiite coreligionists. Some people, in fact, think it's more than an eye.
Which might well explain the motivations pushing the firebrand, problematic radical cleric, Moqtada Sadr. But more on that in a moment.
The Sunnis, who have long dominated Iraq's political life, are now frantic that they will be pushed aside, and in the process lose much of the clout they held under Saddam.
The Kurds in the northern part of the country -- who incidentally have fared very well as an autonomous region since Saddam was kept out of Kurdistan in the aftermath of the 1990-91 Gulf War -- are keen to keep the liberties they have enjoyed during the past decade. Under no circumstances would they want to loose the advantages they gained and be forced to answer to a central authority in Baghdad, as they once did. The Kurds have the oil fields in the north and a well-trained militia to back up their demands. They, too, will fight to protect their interests.
And finally, the Christian minorities -- Assyrians and other Eastern Rite churches -- who have been coming under rising pressure from Islamists since the fall of Saddam and who remain extremely worried about their uncertain future.
Consequently, much of the politicking that has been taking place in Iraq (and Washington) during the last few months has been a sort of giant chess game with various parties jostling for the final play -- the great political grab that should give their community a bigger say in the future Iraq.
Brahimi's first candidate for prime minister -- a position which will hold executive powers, and which was extended to the nuclear scientist Hussain al-Shahristani -- was apparently nixed by the United States because he is seen as being a mite too close to Iran.
Shahristani, who spent years in the notorious Abu Ghraib prison for refusing to join Saddam Hussein's ambitions to build a nuclear weapon, later escaped to Iran. Following the Ahmed Chalabi fiasco, the Bush White House will most certainly be extremely careful whom they pick for the top jobs in Iraq.
Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress, a longtime darling child of the Pentagon despite warnings from the U.S. State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency that he was "untrustworthy," was for a short while a very possible candidate for the influential post of prime minister, a position many Iraq watchers said would be the real power behind the throne.
But given the recent scandal alleging that Chalabi has passed on U.S. intelligence to Iran, he has exited the picture.
The new candidate to emerge Friday is Iyad Allawi, another Shiite who spent years in exile under Saddam Hussein. Latest reports from Baghdad seem to indicate that the Governing Council unanimously endorsed him. Allawi is a British-educated neurologist. He had left Iraq in the 1970s and survived a 1978 assassination attempt ordered by Saddam while living in London.
Now back to Sadr, the hothead and troublemaking cleric. Just how much of a bargaining factor is he? The 25-year-old cleric was practically a nobody, commanding just a few radical followers, mostly in the giant Baghdad slum Sadr City, named after his father.
But that was until the United States tried to arrest him for last year's murder of Sayyid Abdul Majid al-Khoei, a prominent religious leader. Sadr's only influence came from the fact that he is the son of Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadiq Sadr, who was assassinated in Najaf in 1999, along with his two sons, on the orders of Saddam Hussein. In Shiite circles, that gave him an important leg to stand on.
A month after clashing with the U.S. coalition in Najaf, Sadr City and other towns around the country, Sadr is now negotiating a truce with the coalition, a move that will, in the eyes of many Shiites, elevate the troublemaking cleric.
The truce he has negotiated with the coalition is dubious, at best. Sadr will keep it and break it as he pleases. Despite instructions from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and the Grand Shiite Council to put an end to the standoff in Najaf, one of Shiism's holiest cities, he continues to act according to his own will.
All indications -- from field reports to intelligence sources -- show that his supporters are growing in numbers. Some reports point to Sadr receiving help and support from Iran. According to one analyst quoting intelligence sources, a number of Saddam Fedayeens -- the Sunni goon squads who swore unfaltering loyalty to the former dictator -- have joined forces with Sadr.
The bottom line is that he appears to have established himself as a factor -- one way or another -- in the new Iraq. The big question is how will he influence the future of the country? Is Iran -- by his proxy -- vying for a greater say in neighboring Iraq, a country that has long been viewed by the Persians next door with much suspicion?
Only time will tell. And precious little is left of it left until June 30.
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