WASHINGTON, Aug. 27 (UPI) -- An old political adage advises, "You can't beat somebody with nobody." Actually, it's more of a truism. In every election year there are races that are won or lost well before the contest begins.
Candidate recruitment is often a prickly process. When the proverbial blood of an incumbent is in the water, political pets, party favorites and pretenders to a particular office dance around each other for weeks or even months, waiting for someone to make the first move. When an incumbent is strong it is often difficult to find someone credible who is willing to put their name on the line in the seemingly hopeless task of taking out an entrenched officeholder.
Getting someone who can win to actually run is the first and often hardest step in a campaign. A good recruitment can end a race before it ever starts.
In 1988, for example, the Democrats recruited former Virginia Gov. Chuck Robb to run for the U.S. Senate. A popular and politically moderate former governor, Robb was considered future presidential material. His opponent would have been first-term Virginia Republican Sen. Paul Trible.
But Trible chose to retire after rather than experience almost certain defeat. As Lyndon Johnson's son-in-law, Robb had star power. The resources he brought to the table were something Trible could not hope to match.
Twelve years later the tables turned. Robb's reputation lay in tatters after stories about a nude massage involving an actress-cum-model who later posed for Playboy became public. He was re-elected with just 46 percent of the vote, thanks largely to a split within the GOP.
He was not as fortunate in 2000. Virginia Republicans lined up early behind George Allen, a successful former governor and the man who made the GOP the majority party in the commonwealth.
Robb didn't quit but was the underdog from the outset. The perception that Allen was the stronger candidate dogged Robb throughout the campaign -- hampering everything from his fundraising to his ability to motivate volunteers.
He lost 52-48, barely winning Virginia's more liberal areas and losing, by a wide margin, the commonwealth's under-60 vote.
The recruitment issue looms large in the upcoming election, especially in the ongoing battle for control of the Senate. The Republicans in particular have gotten some bad breaks. A number of first tier potential candidates have passed on the opportunity to run for the Senate.
U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn, R-Wash., could not be persuaded to challenge two-term incumbent Democrat Patty Murray. Instead U.S. Rep. George Nethercutt of Spokane, who defeated U.S. House Speaker Tom Foley in 1994, will make the race.
Murray would have been very vulnerable to a challenge from Dunn. Against Nethercutt the jury is out.
In 1994, national pro-term limit organizations provided crucial support to Nethercutt in his upset victory against sitting U.S. House Speaker Tom Foley. But he broke his pledge to serve only three terms in the House.
Unable to defeat him for re-election to the House, these same term-limit supporters, who are nothing if not wealthy, may want to settle the score now, forcing him to fight an uphill battle on several unexpected fronts.
In Nevada U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, the putative frontrunner, says he will not make a 2004 run against incumbent U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate.
Reid is particularly vulnerable, having won re-election in 1998 by just a few hundred votes. Gibbons, some GOP insiders say, would rather run for the open governorship in 2006, leaving the party to scout out its second choice to run against Reid.
In North Dakota, former Gov. Ed Schafer and former Louisiana State University basketball coach Dale Brown have both passed on the opportunity to take on incumbent Democrat Byron Dorgan, at least for the moment.
Dorgan is powerful if not popular and tough to beat under the best circumstance. The party is still looking for a candidate, with state Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem being one name frequently mentioned.
Another perceived set back for the GOP is Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's announcement that he would not be running against Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who some analysts believe to be vulnerable.
Huckabee suggested the party consider Lt. Gov. Winthrop Rockefeller as its candidate while others hope former U.S. congressman and current Homeland Security official Asa Hutchinson will make the race.
In other states the GOP faces a different recruitment challenge. Rather than having too few candidates, they may have too many.
More than one South Carolina Republican wants to go to the U.S. Senate in place of retiring Democrat Ernest 'Fritz' Hollings. On paper this seat seems like a sure GOP pick up in a presidential year. Perhaps. But if GOP frontrunners Charlie Condon, a former state attorney general, and U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint split the vote in the nomination fight, a weaker candidate may end up the nominee, meaning the GOP may have to fight to win a seat they should otherwise have been able to put away early.
There is a similar problem in Florida. Former Rep. Bill McCollum, who lost a Senate bid in 2000; former state House Speaker Danny Webster, now a state senator; and Rep. Mark Foley, whose congressional district runs from West Palm Beach on the Atlantic Coast almost to the Gulf of Mexico are all trying to win the 2004 GOP nomination. And the field may yet get bigger.
The presence of at least three top-tier candidates in the race means the party may have a difficult time pulling together behind a single nominee after primary in late September. An effective general election campaign may be out of the GOP's reach -- especially if incumbent Sen. Bob Graham abandons his presidential bid nomination, as is rumored to be under consideration, and runs instead for re-election to a seat the Democrats cannot afford to lose.
Republicans in Illinois have not been able to recruit a first-tier candidate in their effort to retain the seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald after just one term.
The odds do not favor the GOP in this increasingly Democrat-leaning state. Former Republican Gov. Jim Edgar, who might have won easily, declined to make the race as did former Gov. Jim Thompson, a liberal Republican who is the state's longest-serving governor.
The across-the-board picture for the party remains optimistic. Most of its incumbent senators seeking re-election occupy seats that are safe or lean Republican. Most of the opportunities for pick-ups are in states Bush won in 2000 by a healthy margin.
Nevertheless, with Senate Democrats engaging in the "politics of obstruction" with increasing frequency, the GOP is going to have to increase is presence in the U.S. Senate by more than just one or two seats if the Bush agenda is going to become law.
To do so, they need to have more seats in play then the recruitments thus far indicate will be the case.
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(The Peter Principles is a regular column on politics, culture and the media by Peter Roff, UPI political analyst and 20-year veteran of the Washington scene.)
