He was appointed by fellow Democrat Jon Corzine when Corzine stepped down from the Senate to become governor.
The Quinnipiac University Poll found 48 percent of those surveyed plan to vote for the Democrat, while 43 percent support Thomas Kean, the Republican candidate. Nine percent were undecided and 8 percent said they might change their minds before the election Tuesday.
Some polls have shown that in any other year, Kean, son of the popular former governor who headed the commission investigating the terrorist attacks of Sept. 21, 2001, would have a good chance of becoming the first Republican elected to the Senate from New Jersey in more than 30 years. But this year, enough voters are so angry over the Iraq war they are willing to overlook recent Democratic ethical lapses, the report said.
Quinnipiac surveyed 917 likely voters between Oct. 31 and Nov. 5. The poll has a 3.2 percent margin of error.