When a group of hardy Canadian Rangers set out from Resolute, Nunavut, earlier this month to reach the North Magnetic Pole, they hoped to do the entire 530-mile trip by snowmobile. As often happens in Canada's far north, nature set the rules -- and brought disappointment.
At a point near Cape Isachsen, on Ellef Ringnes Island, the snowmobiles could go no further. The rangers were still some 50 miles from their destination, but uncertain ice conditions and open stretches of sea water between them and the magnetic pole dictated that they should not push their luck on the land machines. They took consolation in the fact that they were within a circle, some 125 miles in diameter, where the unstable North Magnetic Pole swings erratically.
The group of weather-toughened rangers had experienced temperatures of minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit along the way, yet the fact that ice conditions were uncertain beyond Ellef Ringnes Island did not come entirely as a surprise. Global warming has been causing the Arctic ice to thin and break up earlier in the year, in an incremental fashion, for the past few decades.
The steady retreat of the Arctic ice also means that the legendary Northwest Passage, which intrepid seafarers had hunted for 300 years since Sir Martin Frobisher's first voyage of discovery in 1576, is beginning to become more open to shipping through the Canadian archipelago for increasingly longer periods in the summer.
However, if shipping companies believe they can soon begin using the Northwest Passage rather than the Panama Canal to get cargo vessels from Europe to Japan or other countries in the Pacific Rim, one Canadian academic who has researched the northern sea lanes says they should not hold their breath.
"It's not as though it is opening slowly more and more each year," says Franklyn Griffiths of the University of Toronto. "It doesn't work that way." In some years the sea lanes are extraordinarily ice-free in some parts, while other parts may be less ice-free than in the previous year. "I think everyone agrees, who looks at this variability, (that) it's quite pronounced."
Broadly speaking, the ice-free periods may begin in late July or early August, and continue through September to early October, giving the Canadian Coast Guard roughly three months during which they may guide vessels through the Northwest Passage, with an icebreaker at the head of each convoy.
Sometimes, "You've got impossible conditions," Griffiths told United Press International. "Other times you could paddle a canoe through."
"It's certainly wide enough for ships to go through," he said, but "when I say 'it,' you should remember that the Northwest Passage actually consists of seven, different waterways. It's not just one route."
"There are many different ways through, in principle, some of them less likely to be used than others. It all depends on the conditions," Griffiths said. "So, again, everything is not uniform and you need to be aware that some parts are ... narrower and perhaps more likely to be ice-choked, (while) others are more open, and they can be ice-free or ice-choked, depending on your luck."
Some shipping companies may be eyeing the Northwest Passage because it's said to be a lot shorter than routes that take vessels through the Panama Canal. However, the companies would need to remember, Griffiths said, that "these waters are indeed ice-fested, and they therefore require certain conditions to be met for ship construction, navigation, crew training, etc., etc." All of this would make it less likely that this route through the Canadian archipeligao will be preferred.
If the global warming conditions seen over the last 30 years "were to persist for the next 30, to 2032, the rate of (ice) thinning in the Canadian archipelago would give you an extra month of shipping," he said. Nevertheless, by 2032, conditions would remain variable, with "some years where there's going to be very difficult ice conditions, where you would need ice-strengthened vessels, where perhaps they would need to come through in convoys, etc."
"It seems to me that the cost advantages of doing it this way are unlikely to be met, compared to other routes, Griffiths said. "You never know. I'm a doubter in these matters."
It is not immediately clear what countries would be interested in sending ships through the Northwest Passage, as the waterways becomes more ice-free. Japanese companies might consider it a shorter route to Europe, while German companies sending ships the other way might also see it as a preferable route in some months of the year.
Ships carrying flags of convenience could see it as a cost-cutting route. However, Russian companies looking for short routes may find it easier to get to ports in Hudson Bay without going through the Northwest Passage, since ships starting out from Russia's own northern ports in the Arctic Circle would need only to skirt the polar ice cap to enter Canadian waters.
Global warming, and the thinning ice sheet in the Canadian archipelago have led military officials to take more vigorous steps recently to assert the country's sovereignty in the area. In fact, that was one of the objectives of the Canadian Rangers expedition this month.
"It's all about sovereignty here," said Capt. Rick Regan, a deputy commander of the patrol group. The rangers assert Canada's sovereignty simply by showing the flag or going on patrols though the desolate territory, he said.
Canada asserts that the ice shelves are extensions of its islands in the archipelago, and most countries have not challenged this, but the recent appearance of larger expanses of open sea has created new difficulties. In 1999, for instance, Canadian authorities were stunned when a Chinese ship, the Tuktoyaktuk, showed up in an open waterway without prior permission. Normally, ships carrying flags of other countries seek prior permission.
In requesting permission the foreign vessels, particularly military ships, are in fact "acknowledging Canadian sovereignty. In saying yes or no, Canada exercises its sovereignty," says Griffiths, a professor emeritus of political science.
"Some vessels we might say no to, conceivably, but my guess is that if it ever came to that kind of thing, we would be, on the whole, fairly accommodating, so long as the vessels were properly equipped and manned and unlikely to suffer an accident."
Hypothetically, however, "If Russia and the United States were on bad terms 30 years from now, and Russia wants to send an icebreaker through, perhaps we'd say no."
Though most countries have not challenged Canadian sovereignty in the waterways, the United States and some European countries consider the Northwest Passage to be international waters.
"These are Canadian waters," Griffith said, stating Ottawa's position. If a dispute were to arise, "Canada would be ready to go to the International Court of Justice and have the whole thing argued out. ... This is the way things are done when it comes to international legal disputes."
Meanwhile, the Canadian Coast Guard has five icebreakers in the area to lead convoys of tourism and cargo vessels through the Northwest Passage during the relatively ice-free periods. The tourists have been showing up only recently. Prior to their appearance, the convoys consisted mainly of cargo ships carrying food and other supplies to scattered communities that are ice-bound in the archipelago for at least nine months in the year.
