TEL AVIV, Israel, April 6 (UPI) -- With Arab leaders back in their capitals after the summit meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Israeli prime minister spending the Passover holiday in an undisclosed Galilee site, analysts have turned to examine problems surrounding the revived Arab peace initiative.
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi seemed overly optimistic after her meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Syrian President Bashar Assad when she concluded they were ready to talk. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier seemed more cautious following Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to the Middle East. "On the Israeli and on the Palestinian side we discern a new tendency to reflect," he told Berlin's Tagesspiegel.
The Arab initiative, initially floated in 2002 and reaffirmed last week, offered Israel peace and normal relations if it would withdraw from all the territories it occupied since 1967, agree to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital, and reach an agreement on a "just" solution to the Palestinian refugee problem. That solution should be in line with U.N. Resolution 194, which talks of allowing refugees to return to their old homes.
The refugee issue is a major obstacle to a solution. Israel will not let them back because they could soon outnumber the Jews. Most Palestinians are unwilling to compromise by resettling in the West Bank, Gaza and third countries, with only a limited number returning to their past homes. According to the latest poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 54 percent of the respondents said they would oppose such an agreement, though 43 percent would accept it.
"The real problems with the Saudi peace initiative go well beyond the much-discussed issue of the 'right of return,'" maintained Dore Gold, who was a diplomatic adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
In an analysis published by the Institute for Contemporary Affairs, Gold noted, "The Saudi plan demands 'full withdrawal' from 'all the territories' Israel captured 40 years ago." That goes beyond U.N. Security Council Resolution 242, of 1967, which did not require a complete withdrawal but left room for negotiations.
Even the 1991 Madrid peace conference, which led to direct diplomatic contacts between Israel and the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, was based on that U.N. resolution. "If 242 was sufficient in 1991, why is it not good enough for 2007?" Gold asked.
Haaretz commentator Akiva Eldar noted the Arab League proposed joint working groups with Israel.
"Whoever wants a picture with the Saudi king would have to bring the Syrian president into the frame," Eldar wrote.
Yet Olmert does not intend to meet Assad before Syria fulfills a list of preconditions, the latest of which is to "relinquish the strategic ties it is building with the extremist regime in Iran."
In an analysis published by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, senior research associate Anat Kurz wrote that Israeli and Arab differences would "make it difficult to translate the initiative into an actual agreement."
Moreover, Israel has no authoritative Palestinian interlocutor. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas supports the initiative, but Hamas leaders refrained from explicitly endorsing it.
Israel's Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, which is affiliated with the defense establishment, said Hamas opposed the peace initiative because it contains readiness to recognize Israel and end the conflict with it.
Hamas did not want to confront the Saudis, the Egyptians and other states that support the initiative and the Palestinian national unity government that Hamas heads, so the Islamic movement's leaders avoided outspoken criticism and adopted vagueness.
However, in the Gaza Strip, Hamas spokesman Ismail Radwan reportedly said Jerusalem would not be freed through committees and negotiations but with guns and rockets. Israel considers Abbas a partner for dialogue but refuses any dealings with Palestinian ministers, even those who do not belong to Hamas.
"Israel maintains its economic embargo on the Palestinian government and its military pressure (on it) ... to weaken Hamas or ... encourage a change in its position," Kurz wrote.
She questioned the policy's wisdom. "The collapse of that government will not necessarily weaken Hamas' military capabilities or undermine its public support. Indeed, freed of institutional constraints, Hamas might even become more aggressive. Fatah, for its part, is too weak to fill the Palestinian public space and become an authoritative interlocutor," she maintained.
The Fatah-Hamas rivalry would make it impossible to implement any security understandings reached with Abbas. "Hamas will subvert any political agreements to which it is not a party, and the ongoing confrontation will cast a long shadow over relations between Israel and the Arab states," Kurz added.
On the other hand, stabilizing the Palestinian arena might help promote a regional process.
"Political momentum that gains public support in the territories might well push Hamas to adopt a more compromising position," Kurz predicted. "Fear of being perceived as the main obstacle to some regional plan could prompt its leaders to overcome the political and ideological inhibitions preventing recognition of Israel."
The PCPSR's latest survey in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip suggested most Palestinians were ready for a deal with Israel. Eighty-four percent of the respondents support the current cease-fire with Israel in Gaza and would like it extended to the West Bank.
Eighty-three percent agreed that after an independent Palestinian state is established and all the disputes with Israel are resolved, there would be a mutual recognition of Israel as the Jews' state and Palestine as the Palestinians' state.
A majority agreed to a limited land swap so that Israel could keep some settlements, provided Palestine would get an equal amount of Israeli territory. However, a majority opposed the idea that Israel should keep Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, the Old City's Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall.
