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Analysis: A Palestinian unity government

By JOSHUA BRILLIANT, UPI Correspondent

JERUSALEM, Nov. 14 (UPI) -- The nationalist Fatah and its main rival, the Islamic Hamas, are in the process of forming a national unity government, and hope it will end an international boycott that has been crippling the Palestinian Authority.

Gazai Hamad of Hamas, the government's spokesman, Monday told United Press International he hoped that "before the end of this month we will have an agreement."

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Fatah spokesman Walid Awad sounded equally optimistic: "The feeling amongst all is that within the next weeks there will be a national unity government."

Hamas and Fatah have been locked in a power struggle with occasional bursts of violence. Hamas, which controls almost two-thirds of the Legislative Council, refused to compromise on its hard-line ideology.

It rejected international demands that it recognize Israel, abide by agreements the Palestinian Authority has concluded with Israel, and refused to renounce violence. Consequently, the international community has been boycotting the Hamas-led government both politically and economically. Unemployment soared to over 50 percent, according to Hamad, and the government failed to pay its 160,000 employees so even people who had jobs had difficulty feeding their families.

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Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's readiness to step down signaled Hamas was ready for changes.

The new government will include ministers whom the various parties will nominate, but who are "experts," "technocrats" or at least not what Awad called "party front runners."

The next prime minister will most probably be Ahmad Shubair, a microbiologist who received his PhD in West Virginia and until August was president of the Islamic University in Gaza.

The official nomination is expected only after the entire agreement is wrapped up, Hamad said.

Now the parties are discussing how to divide the portfolios, how many seats each party should be allocated, and which ministries go to which party.

According to some accounts Hamas wants eight portfolios, including the Interior Ministry, which controls the security forces; the Finance Ministry; and the Education Ministry, which would allow it to expand its ideology. Fatah would like to see Salam Fayyad back at the Finance Ministry, as Fayyad seems to have the international community's confidence.

Awad thought it likely that Fatah would get six portfolios, while six more would be given to other parties and four to independents.

An Israeli government analyst anticipated haggling and tough negotiations -- but an eventual agreement -- over the Cabinet's composition. That is not going to kill the process, he said.

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One of the key problems is the political platform, the issues that have led to the Quartet -- the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- boycotting the Palestinian government.

Hamas is trying to skirt the problem by maintaining the Israeli issue will not be in the government's hands. Negotiations with Israel will be entrusted to President Mahmoud Abbas, as head of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Abbas recognizes Israel, seeks agreements with it and opposes violence. When he was prime minister, he accepted the U.S.-proposed "road map" for peace.

According to Hamad, the Quartet's demands did not even come up in the coalition talks, since "the government will not be involved in the political affairs."

The "point of reference" will be the National Document, also known as the Prisoners' Document, as it was drafted by security prisoners held in Israel. It is written in such a way that "someone who wants negotiations can have it, and someone who favors (continued) resistance can continue with armed resistance," noted Yohanan Tzoreff, of the International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism, near Tel Aviv.

An amended form, which Hamas and Fatah officials signed in September, talks of the Palestinian people's right to "struggle to liberate their land and end the occupation using all the legitimate means."

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It says the government "respects" the agreements the PLO signed, but Hamad noted that does not mean acceptance. It is just an admission that the agreement cannot be changed, he said.

A Hamas Web site said: "Both Hamas and Fatah agreed that the political program of the unity government will be based on the national harmony document ... without mentioning any word of recognizing the Hebrew state."

President Abbas is now trying to win U.S. and EU consent for the evolving agreement so that they will lift their boycott of the Palestinian government. If the boycott is not revoked, "there is no point in establishing (the government)," Awad said.

Abbas has been discussing the issue with U.S. diplomats, but the Consulate-General's spokeswoman in Jerusalem, Micaela Schweitzer-Bluhm, said it would be premature to comment on it.

Israel, Palestinian militants and Hamas leader Khaled Mishaal, who is based in Damascus, seem to be in a position to scuttle the process.

Abbas wants the agreement to be part of a package deal that includes also the release of kidnapped Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the release of Palestinian prisoners -- including Hamas ministers held in Israel -- and a ceasefire.

Mishaal, a hardliner, has leverage over the militants holding Shalit, but talks on a prisoner exchange seem bogged down. Legislative Council Member Mustafa Barghouti, of the Independent Palestine List, has been mediating between Fatah and Hamas and Monday headed to Damascus to meet Mishaal.

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The Palestinians will also have to find a way to reign in Islamic Jihad, which has so far refused to halt its fire. Without a total cessation of Palestinian attacks, Israel is unlikely to hold its fire.

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