WASHINGTON, July 28 (UPI) -- With Croatia's cooperation with The Hague war crimes tribunal and the European Union's commitment to expansion of the bloc in question, Zagreb's path to membership of the 25-nation bloc is laden with challenges.
Kickoff talks were supposed to have started last March, but were postponed pending Croatia's "full cooperation" with International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. But as time lags on and Croatia sees no sign of a new date, its original target date for becoming a full EU member by 2007 seems increasingly untenable.
But, the greatest concern for Croatia and other candidate countries is if the EU is ready to enlarge. Against the background of the recent failed referenda on the EU Constitution and budget crisis last month, the Union's foreign ministers appear to have toned down their commitment to the originally scheduled pace of the enlargement process.
Ivo Daalder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a centrist Washington think tank, told United Press International he had grave doubts the EU will open its doors to more countries.
"The European public did not support the last round of enlargement and will not support the next rounds," he said. "After the referenda it will take a brave politician to vote yes in parliament on accession."
The Nice Treaty, under which the EU continues to function, dictates that the bloc is limited to 27 members. If the enlargement process proceeds as planned, the EU will reach this number in 2007, with the accession of Bulgaria and Romania.
In a visit to the Washington last week, Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader said as long as Croatia works to meet the EU criteria, there should be no issue. But as long Gen. Ante Gotovina, the reason why membership talks with Croatia were postponed, is on the loose, Zagreb may not get that chance.
Four years ago, the ICTY charged Gotovina with war crimes committed against Croatian Serbs during the Croat army offensive in 1995. He allegedly masterminded the killings of about 150 Serbs and the expulsions of at least 150,000 others as part of a drive to purge Serbs from Croatia.
Sanader has ordered an intensified search for him though he insists Gotovina has fled the country and questioned whether the EU decision to postpone talks was the right one.
"Zagreb is fully cooperating with the international court in The Hague," he said at a news conference. "Under my leadership, eight out of nine Croatian citizens were indicted for their crimes (during the Balkan War).
"We are getting the help of other member states to resolve the issue in case he fled there," he added.
Daalder, though, is not as confident.
"Accession negotiations still need to commence and it will take many years for these to be completed," he said. "So, as long as Croatia does not hand General Gotovina over to The Hague for trial, even those negotiations will not start."
On the other hand, U.S. Institute of Peace fellow Daniel P. Serwer, who attended Sanader's conference in Washington, said Croatia was doing all that it could to find Gotovina.
"He consistently repeated that Croatia was doing everything it could to find him," he said. "I think he was sincere."
The EU, however, has criticized Croatia for not doing enough on the issue.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn said the ICTY's chief prosecutor had shown that some progress had been made, "but for the time being co-operation cannot be described as full."
"I regret that this is the case, but I understand that the Croatian authorities need more time to ensure that democratic structures are fully in control and that the entire state administration complies with the rule of law and with international obligations," he said in a statement.
But he noted: "Croatia's future is in the European family, Croatia is a candidate country, and nothing has changed in that regard."
But critics say starting membership talks with a country that has failed to hand over all its war crimes suspects would send the wrong message.
In 1991, Croatia fought a bloody six-month war with the Serbs, who took up arms to rebel against the country's independence from the former Yugoslavia. At least 10,000 Croats were killed and hundreds of thousands driven from their homes as Serbs seized about a third of the country.
In 1995, the nation regained that territory in two offensives that sent thousands of Serbs fleeing to neighboring Bosnia and Serbia. Hundreds of those who stayed behind -- most of them elderly -- were slain by Croat troops.
As Croatia now tries to enter the EU, improving Croat-Serb relations is a priority, Sanader said.
Both Sanader and Croatia's President Stipe Mesic met with Serbia-Montenegro's President Svetozar Marovic and Prime Minister Zoran Zivkovic as part of efforts to promote reconciliation in the Balkans. Sanader went to Belgrade to sign a bilateral agreement with Serbia-Montenegro for the protection of the Serbs.
Recently, he visited orthodox communities in Zagreb speaking the Serbian language, which was "a big shock for both Croats and Serbs."
"Serbian relationship is of utmost importance for the future of Croatia," Sanader said.
