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Analysis: Gerhard's farewell tour

By STEFAN NICOLA, UPI Germany Correspondent

KEHL AM RHEIN, Germany, July 13 (UPI) -- It undoubtedly was a charming image last Wednesday in Gleneagles, Scotland: German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder smiling brightly alongside two popular advocates for debt relief for Africa -- U2's Bono and Live-8 organizer Bob Geldof.

Bono was so impressed by the chancellor he publicly praised him during Thursday's U2-concert in Berlin. Schroeder once again showed why the German media termed him "Medienkanzler" ("Media Chancellor").

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But less than 24 hours after the meeting, several explosions rocked London in a terrorist attack on the city's mass transit system.

"For Schroeder's popularity, the Bono-Geldof event really was a great idea," Tim Stuchtey, political science professor and foreign policy expert at Berlin's Humboldt University, said Wednesday in a telephone interview with United Press International.

"He was casual, he was relaxed. But as good as the idea was, it was obsolete when the attacks happened," he said. "Nobody really cared anymore -- bad luck!"

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But Schroeder, whose Social Democrats are hopelessly behind in the polls for Germany's federal elections, had many chances to show off his skills as a global politician. In recent weeks, the 61-year-old embarked on an ambitious tour for photo opportunities with the world's major leaders.

In June, Schroeder flew to Washington to meet with long-time foe, U.S. President Bush. Shortly before last week's Group of Eight summit in Scotland, he shook hands with French President Jacques Chirac and Russia's Vladimir Putin.

"Those are nice images," Stuchtey said. "You can show off that you're a leader."

What the German media has mockingly termed "Gerhard's Farewell Tour" could very well be a journey to milk his last chance for political survival: Foreign policy, if not Schroeder's strength, is definitely the area where he is most popular.

While the domestic economy spiraled downward, Schroeder -- reflecting German popular opinion -- took a firm stand against the U.S.-led war on Iraq.

"Even Schroeder's critics admit that he has been good when it comes to questions such as the Iraq War or Iran," said Stuchtey, who also works for the Free Democrats, a potential coalition partner of Schroeder's main rival, Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU.

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A few days before the G8 summit, Schroeder met with Chirac and Putin for the 750th anniversary of the Russian enclave Kaliningrad.

Only Putin knew why Schroeder was present -- journalists asked him why no one from the enclave's neighboring countries, Poland and Lithuania, was invited.

According to German broadcaster ARD, the Russian president said Immanuel Kant, whose name adorns the newly opened university in Kaliningrad, was the reason for Schroeder's presence. Kant was born in the city three centuries ago when it was still German and called Koenigsberg.

But it is more likely Putin wanted to surround himself with allies, even those whose future is in doubt; both Chirac and Schroeder are likely to lose their next elections.

At any rate, Schroeder was happy to be there. The images of the hugging and laughing head of states went well with Schroeder's political marketing concept, observers say.

Even Chirac's attacks on the British cuisine, which sparked a political food fight between France and Britain, didn't hurt the chancellor.

Schroeder, a seasoned player on the global political scene, has an advantage when it comes to foreign policy, observers say.

"Mrs. Merkel is said to be more provincial, and she obviously is less experienced dealing with foreign head of states," Stuchtey said.

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And if the chancellor were to be voted directly, Schroeder would still win, latest polls show. Schroeder would get 47 percent of the vote, leading Merkel by 10 points, German census organization Infratest dimap said last week.

Merkel, 50, a protégé of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl, is lacking the x-factor necessary to win a media-heavy campaign, observers say. On Monday, she agreed to a televised debate with Schroeder. FDP-head Gudio Westerwelle had warned her not to do so.

The CDU doesn't have to be overly worried, however. When Germans go to the polls, they don't vote for a chancellor, but for regional representatives from the major parties that then form the Bundestag, the body that eventually elects a chancellor.

And some see Schroeder's farewell tour as just one more populist measure to fish for votes.

When Joschka Fischer, the once-popular German foreign minister, visited Washington, the Berlin newspaper Taz teased the governing coalition of SPD and Greens by headlining the trip: "Dead Man Walking."

As for Schroeder's meeting in the White House: it was due shortly after he announced the plan of a parliamentary confidence vote. Claus Kleber of the popular ARD news show "Heute Journal," asked Schroeder "with how much authority" the 61-year-old could talk German foreign policy with Bush.

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"With the authority of the chancellor," Schroeder replied.

But while the Schroeder-Bush meeting looked like a good first step for better trans-Atlantic relations, it might be their last meeting.

"Bush knows the prediction polls very well," Stuchtey said. "In reality, Schroeder is a lame duck for his foreign counterparts."

While Bush brought out his Texan charm and Schroeder threw in many of his Lower-Saxony-bred, media-tested smiles, the chancellor achieved little in Washington.

His push for fundamental U.N. reform and a permanent German seat in the Security Council were met with polite silence in Washington.

Observers say even a CDU-led country will not get a permanent seat, much less a Germany with the anti-U.S. SPD/Greens in power.

"If the opposition wins the federal elections, a couple of things will change when it comes to foreign policy," Stuchtey said.

Schroeder will continue to milk his charming foreign policy face, observers say. But it's more likely Schroeder's latest appearances spell bye-bye for good, and not "Auf Wiedersehen" ("See you again").

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