WASHINGTON, April 13 (UPI) -- Thirty years ago this Wednesday was the official start of the Lebanese civil war. Fears of the conflict re-igniting have recently surfaced following the Feb. 14 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri and the turmoil that ensued.
"Lebanon's political class, notoriously fractured, could create fresh opportunities for outside interference and pave the way for domestic chaos," warns a report issued Tuesday by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.
The war destroyed large parts of the country, killed close to 150,000 people, forced thousands to flee and culminated with foreign occupations.
The 1989 Saudi-sponsored Taif Peace Accord -- which was never fully implemented -- eventually ended the conflict, and the country enjoyed a decade or so of prosperity. But in reality, much as the official debut of the war occurred sometime before April 13, 1975, so too the official end to the conflict remains unclear.
One of the dangers looming over Lebanon is that there was never really a resolution to the conflict. After years of fierce hostilities, it seemed as though the warring factions grew tired of fighting and the war sputtered and stopped, much like a car running out of gas. The causes behind the conflict were never addressed, and there was no attempt at reconciliation.
Not one monument was erected to the memory of the 150,000 casualties of the war, nor has there been any real effort to uncover what became of the 17,000 people who were kidnapped and remain missing. It's almost as though the country is in collective denial over the years of conflict.
Most Lebanese usually refer to the war as simply "the events."
Today the risk of more "events" is very real. In a report titled "Syria After Lebanon, Lebanon After Syria," the International Crisis Group stresses that "the Syrian regime, sensing its survival at stake, may lash out, using its remaining instruments and allies in Lebanon and beyond."
The threat to Lebanon's security is not purely external; there are ample dangers within. In a "country awash with weapons and on the verge of a major redistribution of power and resources, the means and motivations for violence abound," Reinoud Leenders, an analyst with the ICG points out.
There is also the danger, according to the ICG, that "the U.S., feeling its broader regional goals within striking distance, may well over-reach, triggering violent reactions from Syria, Hezbollah or militant Palestinian groups."
The Syrians worry that the Bush administration may attempt to push forward with its vision of regime change. Reacting to pressures from the Lebanese, the United States and the international community, Damascus began withdrawing its forces from Lebanon, where Syrian troops intervened in 1976 to stop the civil war.
Since the Syrians began their pullout, a number of bombs have exploded in Christian areas of Beirut; the obvious intention to spark dissent. But the Lebanese have been wise, so far.
"Most international and Lebanese actors have acted with welcome wisdom," reports the ICG. Marwan Hamade, a prominent opposition leader and former Cabinet minister in Hariri's government, told United Press International that recent events are not likely to re-ignite the Lebanese civil war.
Hamade, himself the target of an assassination attempt, told UPI "the ingredients for civil war are not there." The former minister said he feels this time things are very different and that "the Lebanese people are far more conscious of the situation. "There are neither the ingredients nor the seeds for a civil war," said Hamade. "Civil war is not at the door."
One of the factors working in Lebanon's favor has been the initiative shown by the Lebanese opposition in working together across sectarian and political divides, stressing national unity.
The assassination of Hariri -- which Yasser Accoui, editor-in-chief of Beirut's Executive magazine equated to nothing short of "a coup d'etat" -- resulted in an unexpected popular uprising demanding the withdrawal of Syria.
Syria acquiesced and began to pull out. However, as the ICG report points out, what Syria leaves behind remains uncertain.
In a country "accustomed to being a theater for proxy wars between Arabs, Palestinian and Israelis," the report states, "the means and motivations for violence abound."
For Lebanon to enjoy continued serenity and avoid falling back into civil strife, the Brussels group said it "will require the U.S. to curb its appetite, Lebanon's opposition to maintain its moderation, and Syria to avoid a scorched-earth policy.
ICG recommends a sundry list of steps be taken by Lebanon, the United States, the European Union, Syria, Israel and the United Nations.
It suggests Lebanese political forces, including the opposition and Hezbollah, adopt a joint platform to form an interim government to organize elections, pass a new electoral law, address unimplemented aspects of the Taif Accord and Security Council Resolution 1559.
It recommends that Lebanon take Syrian concerns into account while shaping policies toward Israel, conduct relations with Syria on the basis of equality between sovereign states, and prosecute persons found responsible for Hariri's assassination by the U.N. investigation.
It counsels the gradual integration of Hezbollah's military wing as an autonomous unit under Lebanese army control and the full disarmament of Hezbollah in the context of progress toward Israeli-Lebanese and Israeli-Syrian peace agreements.
The full report can be seen on crisisgroup.org.
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