WASHINGTON, June 28 (UPI) -- A national public opinion survey of political attitudes in Iraq released Thursday from the International Republican Institute, claims that Iraqis are optimistic about the future of their country. The survey was touted as a stark contrast to other polls, ones that showed disillusionment with the United States occupation.
But does it really show anything new or different?
The IRI poll took place from May 27 to June 11, surveying 1,920 respondents across all 18 province of Iraq, and included a 25 percent of the rural population.
"Do you think Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?" the poll asked Iraqis.
Nearly 51 percent of respondents replied that Iraq was heading in the right direction and almost 40 percent thought otherwise. Sixty-five percent believed things in Iraq will be better a year from now while only 15 predicted things would get worse.
As for Monday's handover of Iraq from the United States to the interim government of Iraq, almost 73 percent of Iraqis felt that it would improve the current situation, 13 percent felt things would stay the same, and less than 10 percent believed that the handover would make things worse.
The IRI is a U.S. group that works with center-right organizations.
Another poll, released Monday by Oxford Research International, advertised a similar level of optimism among Iraqis. It surveyed 3,002 people in 16 provinces from May 19 to June 14.
Oxford Research International is a British-based research firm of analysts who graduated from Oxford University.
The first question asked was: "Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days?"
Fifty-five percent said things were good, and 45 percent said things were bad. A larger percentage of Iraqis -- 64 percent -- believed that, one year from now things will be better. Almost 19 percent thought things would be worse, and 17.5 percent thought things would stay the same.
One reason for the optimism expressed in the IRI survey is that it focuses on the independent Iraq, rather than the presence of U.S.-led coalition forces currently there.
"(The poll) shows the feeling of Iraqis being in charge of Iraqis," said Stuart Krusell deputy director of Iraq programs with IRI. "It's very forward-looking. ... It's talking about, what's your opinion of Iraqi institutions, where other (polls) focus on the Coalition Provisional Authority."
Similarly, the optimism expressed in the Oxford Research International poll reflects people's satisfaction with life, views that are of a more individual nature. And although most Iraqis said they were content with their lives, when the poll examines Iraqi opinions about occupation, the CPA, and the United States, the numbers lose their cheerfulness.
A slim majority of Iraqis -- 33 percent -- thought that it was "absolutely wrong" for the United States to invade Iraq in spring 2003. Only 6 percent of Iraqis believed that the U.S. policy has improved over the past two months, and the performance of the CPA was uniformly pelted throughout the entire survey as well.
Most importantly, though, the results of the two polls cannot be analyzed in isolation.
A February 2004 Oxford Research Institute Survey asked Iraqis how their lives were going.
In February, 70 percent of Iraqi respondents said that things were good.
Then, an Oxford Research International poll carried out in March and April asked Iraqis to rate their current satisfaction with life on a scale from one to 10. The most common number chosen was five -- a middling level of satisfaction.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted around the same time also showed a decrease in optimism from February. It asked the respondents if Iraq was better or worse off than before the U.S. and British invasion.
Forty-two percent responded that Iraq was better off, 39 percent felt Iraq was worse off, and 17 percent felt the situation hadn't changed.
In the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, 46 percent of Iraqis responded that the coalition invasion did more harm than good. This was the majority of people surveyed.
These polls may show optimism in Iraq, but when examined within the context of other polls, optimism in Iraq has actually been deteriorating.
Richard Burkholder, International bureau chief of the Gallup Organization, told United Press International, "It's a stretch to say, everything's going swell. There's a lot of gloominess in our numbers."
In a press release that accompanied the survey, the IRI admitted that the percentage of people who felt Iraq was improving was "marginally lower than previous polls conducted over previous months." They attributed this drop-off to the increase in violence since early April.
Though, they added that "the support for 'right direction' bears witness to a strong base of optimism among Iraqis."
Burkholder says that there is hope for the future among Iraqis, but this hope isn't based on any overwhelming optimism.
"All the hopes are, by far, the hope of security, that the violence will stop, that there won't be civil war," said Burkholder. "The fears are all fears of civil war, strife, that the violence won't stop, that the Americans won't go home."
The numbers in both surveys are encouraging, but none of them are overwhelming -- except for the 73 percent of people polled by the IRI who looked forward to the handover.
It seems, in fact, that any Iraqi optimism is less a product of happiness with the current situation than a result of the anticipation of self-government.
