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Analysis: The legacy of Geidar Aliyev

By JOHN C. K. DALY, International Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Dec. 15 (UPI) -- A measure of the respect which many Azeri citizens and former Soviet leaders felt for former Azeri president Geidar Aliyev was evident in his funeral service. More than a million people, one eighth of the republic's population lined the streets of the capital Baku.

Heads of state at the funeral service included Russian President Vladimir Putin, Georgia's ousted President Eduard Shevardnadze and his interim replacement, President Nino Burdzhanadze, Turkish President Ahmet Nejdet Sezer, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.

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The first vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mohammad Reza Arifi also attended, while the U.S. delegation, led by President Bush's special envoy Brent Scowcroft included Deputy Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback.

Putin observed that Aliyev was "an internationalist, a great friend of Russia and a patriot of Azerbaijan. I am certain that his memory will live on, not only in Azerbaijan." Nazarbayev also paid fulsome tribute to the late leader, commenting: "I have known him for 25 years. He was a politician and friend with whom I could consult. I will never forget this man. As we say in the East, when a great man leaves this world, less sun is left behind. Indeed, less sun is shining on the Azerbaijani land now. May he rest in peace."

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Eighty year-old Aliyev died of congestive heart failure in Cleveland, Ohio, on Dec. 12, six weeks after his son Ilham succeeded him as president.

What could have drawn such a galaxy of luminaries to the shores of the Caspian? In a word -- oil. For better or worse, Aliyev's policies astutely plugged the Azeri energy industry at the forefront of the new "Great Game," a covert struggle since the collapse of communism to exploit Caspian oil reserves in the largest regional energy development projects since World War II.

Aliyev's legacy is mixed; he drew significant Western investment to develop Azerbaijan's ramshackle oil industry, beginning in September 1994 when after Alieyv signed a ceasefire with Armenia the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic signed a $7.4 billion "deal of the century with 11 Western oil companies to develop Chirag and the offshore sections of the Guneshli oil fields. The agreement was bitterly objected to by Russia, but Aliyev showed his political skills when he agreed to use Russia's Transneft pipeline network to ship Azeri 'early crude to Russia's Novorossisk port on the Black Sea, mollifying the Kremlin with transit revenues.

Western oil companies are now more deeply involved in the development of Azeri energy assets than any other former Soviet republic, with more than $10 billion in direct investment. Azerbaijan's economy is roaring along at an annual GDP growth rate of 10 percent, if official figures are to be believed.

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The darker side of Aliyev's legacy is political. Aliyev never freed himself from his KGB background, and quickly fashioned a role for himself as the stern, authoritarian grandfather of the country who set limits on imported Western ideas such as untrammeled freedom of the press and right of assembly. Prior to October's presidential elections, Aliyev urged the Parliament to appoint his son Ilham as prime minister, which the legislative body supinely did. The subsequent elections were largely a foregone conclusion. A number of western NGOs and experts expressed concern that the Oct. 2003 presidential elections were rigged.

Even Azerbaijan's Ambassador to the U.S., Hafez Pashayev wrote in Baku Today: "It is undeniable that there were incidents of ballot stuffing, pressure on voters, etc. The OSCE, U.S. Department of State and others do Azerbaijan a service by pointing out such irregularities, which have already got careful consideration and appropriate reaction: Central Election Commission annulled more than 20 percent of the ballot" while concluding, "independent polls on the eve of election day gave Mr. Aliyev 65-70 percent of likely votes."

Washington held its nose and quietly sanctioned the transition of power, the first dynastic post-Soviet power transfer. Washington's decision to abandon commitments to democratic values had an echo the following month in Georgia, when voters in their thousands poured into the street to protest similarly flawed parliamentary election, toppling President Eduard Shevardnadze.

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Aliyev's star began to rise when he became a protégé of Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev. Like his former colleague Shevardnadze, who served in the KGB beginning in the early 1960s, Aliyev rose through the ranks of the KGB in the 1940s and 1950s under dictator Joseph Stalin, becoming Azerbaijan's KGB boss in 1967; two years later became Azerbaijan's Communist Party leader. Three years later Aliyev became a full member of the Soviet Politburo, but President Mikhail Gorbachev ousted him in 1987 on allegations of cronyism, nepotism and corruption, rusticating him to his home region of Nakhichevan.

When in June 1993 Aliyev, who was deputy speaker, was elected speaker of Parliament and, in accordance with the constitution, became acting president, he inherited a country in disarray. In following October he was elected president, and was re-elected five years later in elections severely criticized by foreign observers. Stability became his stated goal.

While in office, Aliyev censored the news media and enforced a blockade on rival Armenia. But he remained widely popular in Azerbaijan, where he cultivated the image of a wise but stern grandfather. His adroit handling of foreign oil companies combined with his suave authoritarianism made Azerbaijan a magnet for Western oil investment.

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Aliyev's health went into decline in April; in early August, he was flown to the Cleveland Clinic for treatment. Even the normally reticent Azeri press reported a host of health ailments, from diabetes to the leader needing a kidney and possibly a heart transplant.

Aliyev certainly saw himself as his country's savior; in an interview with the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda he observed, "If I were not here (in 1993), I do not know what would have happened with the republic. After all, no one was found besides me who could save the people...Azerbaijan would have split into several parts." The legacy he has left his son Ilham is mixed; a definitive peace deal with Armenia has yet to be reached, and the country's new oil wealth has failed to trickle down to ordinary citizens. Azerbaijan's vibrant opposition has vowed to continue to contest the hijacking of the country's democracy. It is difficult to see how Ilham Aliyev can reconcile the differing factions. As long as the oil wealth remains concentrated in the hands of a few, while Western companies may be happy, the population might seek its eventual inspiration not only in last month's events in Tbilisi, but the "people power" displayed in Tehran in February 1979.

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