WASHINGTON, May 23 (UPI) -- One item that the Palestinian leadership wants included in the Middle East "road map" is the fate of more than half a million Palestinian refugees that remains undecided and could well continue to hang in eternal political limbo.
The Palestinians insist on the "right of return" for all refugees who fled historic Palestine since the state of Israel was created in 1948. The grim reality is that Israel will almost certainly never allow those refugees living outside the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to "return." Accepting a sudden influx of about half a million Palestinians would be tantamount to demographic suicide for Israel.
"This (the refugees) is the most sensitive issue," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, addressing this topic after the failed Camp David peace talks in 2000.
Over the last decade, more than 14 million individuals were counted as refugees, largely due to existing and emerging wars that have contributed in keeping the numbers steady. From 1991 until the close of 1999, the number of refugees and asylum seekers worldwide has been constant, averaging between 16.5 million, to the current 14,078,000.
The Middle East, regrettably, led this unfortunate tally, counting close to 6 million refugees, most of them Palestinians.
Since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, the majority of Palestinian refugees found themselves scattered to the four corners of the Levant, where many still survive in squalid refugee camps, in ghetto-like conditions.
For the most part they live in Jordan (1,512,700), Syria (374,000), Lebanon (370,000), Saudi Arabia (123,000), Iraq (90,000), Kuwait (35,000), the Gaza Strip (798,000) and the West Bank (569,700), according to figures released by the U.S. Committee for Refugees, in its 2000 World Refugee Survey report.
The refugees in Jordan have been largely assimilated into Jordanian society, as have a selected few in other Arab countries. The great concern remains mostly for the Palestinian refugees currently living in Lebanon and to a lesser extent, Syria. These stand little or no chance of ever being allowed back.
Indeed, many of them are second- and third-generation refugees who were born and raised in the camps. Much to their detriment, there appears to be no prospective solution and this remains a thorn issue in future peace negotiations.
To address this reality will require an aggressive two-step approach involving the Arab states where the refugees are currently encamped and the cooperation of the United States, the United Nations, the European Community and a number of nations that encourage immigration, such as the United States, Canada and Australia.
As a first step, the Palestinian Authority would issue all Palestinian refugees, wherever they are located, a "B-type" passport. That, in itself, would solve the immediate "refugee" problem, in the sense that the refugees would become citizens of the new Palestinian state. They would no longer be qualified as "refugees."
Instead, those refugees would receive financial compensation and assistance in immigrating, if they so desire. There already exists a precedent for such a move, when Great Britain offered similar conditions to Asians who had been expelled from Uganda by Idi Amin Dada. They became known as "Overseas British Citizens."
At some point in the future, visitation rights could be granted on an individual basis to former refugees who still have family ties there -- but only for brief stays, not to take up permanent residence.
Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and other current host nations would have to accept the refugees who choose to remain as full citizens of their countries, which automatically means those nations must be included in the final peace agreement.
To be sure, this is far easier said than done. In Lebanon, for example, where the confessional balance is always a consideration, it could upset the precarious confessional balance. Furthermore, Lebanon, already overburdened economically, does not want them to stay.
"They are refugees, and they will remain refugees. They will never be integrated or assimilated into Lebanese society," a Lebanese official in Washington told United Press International on condition of anonymity. "Their claim (to Palestine) is at least as valid as that of Russian Jews, and they should all be allowed to return."
But in politics, everything is negotiable.
Ironically, it's those very refugees who helped propel the Palestine Liberation Organization to the forefront of the Palestinian revolution. It was their ongoing struggle and sacrifices that allowed the current Palestinian leadership to get where they are, governing a small piece of Palestine known today as the Palestinian Authority -- the basis of the future Palestinian state.
It was also their continuing push for international recognition, at times through the use of terrorist acts, that eventually provided the standing for the new Palestinian prime minister to negotiate with Israel and the United States.
But frankly, the possibility of "return" for the majority of the Palestinian refugees seems bleak. Let's look at some facts. The land that makes up the Palestinian Authority -- parts of the West Bank and Gaza -- is already overcrowded. There are more than half a million Palestinian refugees living in the West Bank and another three-quarter million in the Gaza Strip. Unemployment in Gaza is rampant, and living conditions are dismal. It would be unrealistic to try to absorb an additional 300,000 people, or more. At best, a few will be allowed to trickle in.
In the end, the ultimate price for peace might have to be paid by those who gave the most.
(Claude Salhani is a senior editor with United Press International.)
