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Afghan predicts mass taliban defections

PARIS, Oct. 12 (UPI) -- About a third of Afghan forces fighting for the Taliban are in contact with Afghanistan's rebel

Northern Alliance movement, and appear close to defecting, according to the movement's top diplomat in France.

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In an interview with United Press International on Friday, Mehrabodin Masstan, charge d'affaires for the Embassy of Afghanistan in Paris, estimated that about 10,000 Afghans fighting for the Taliban "are trying to get in contact with us to leave, either rapidly or later when things start to move."

The alliance envoy, who heads Afghanistan's officially recognized government in France, also said the rebel troops have made significant territorial gains in recent days, largely in central Afghanistan. But he said the Northern Alliance had no plans to take over the capital, Kabul, in the immediate future.

"But things can change rapidly with the American bombings," Masstan said, during an interview at the embassy, located in an upscale neighborhood in Paris' 16th arrondissement. "We're sort of in coordination with American and allied forces."

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The alliance forces are considered weak and easily outnumbered by the Taliban. But Masstan suggested that fighters might desert the Taliban at critical times, allowing the alliance to gain territory in carefully planned "coups."

The envoy also said Iran and Russia have recently agreed to offer material aid to the Northern Alliance, although he didn't specify whether the assistance also included military help.

"It's not a little, it's not considerable. It's significant," Masstan said of aid offered by the two governments.

So far, he said, the United States has not offered the alliance any material assistance. Masstan doubted the United States would offer any military help, but possibly logistical aid in the future.

Nonetheless, Masstan said, alliance commanders are in "very regular" contact with U.S. forces, either by radio or through "physical contacts" in the region.

The envoy also denied reports that French personnel were present in northern Afghanistan. Earlier this week, the

French Defense Ministry said French intelligence agents were on the ground, and in contact with the Northern

Alliance.

"That's totally false," Masstan said, adding that neither France nor Britain nor the United States had any personnel "on the ground that we control."

The Afghan envoy also took time to rail at Pakistan, which the alliance blames for being behind many of Afghanistan's current woes, including the Taliban regime, and last month's assassination of the group's charismatic commander, Ahmed Shah Masud.

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"One thing is sure," Masstam said. "Pakistan will do all it can to dictate what will happen in Afghanistan."

Critics charge the Northern Alliance led a government split by corruption and infighting, when the group ruled Kabul in the mid-1990s. Experts also say the movement isn't ethnically or religiously representative of Sunni-dominated, majority-Pashtun Afghanistan. And the United States and Britain are reportedly wary of having the Northern alliance take control of Kabul -- or take too much control in a future Afghan government.

But Friday, the group is playing a central role in discussions among Afghanistan's Diaspora -- including former Afghan King Zahir Shah -- about forming a new, post-Taliban government.

In recent discussions in Rome, Masstam said, Afghan factions agreed to give the alliance 50 out of 120 seats in a future council, which might ultimately create an interim government for the country, and draft a new constitution.

"That's the past," Masstam said of previous excesses, which he largely blamed on a rebel leader who split with the rest of the coalition.

"We don't want to revisit that period," he said. "That's why we need to have a new experience."

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