WASHINGTON, March 1 (UPI) -- U.S. officials are becoming increasingly uneasy about the behavior of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian. The latest cause for concern was his February 28 decision to shut down the National Unification Council and announce that the unification guidelines Taipei adopted in 1990 would "cease to apply." Chen had telegraphed that step during a speech a month earlier marking the Lunar New Year. In that speech he also outlined two other major tasks for his government in the year ahead-finalizing a new constitution ahead of a national referendum in 2007, and applying to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan (rather than the island's official name, the Republic of China).
All of those positions were certain to infuriate Beijing. One newspaper with close ties to the Chinese leadership described Chen's speech as "a bombshell," and PRC officials soon branded the Taiwanese leader as a "troublemaker" who was raising cross-straits tensions to dangerous levels.
Beijing reiterated its long-standing warning that it would never tolerate the triumph of separatist policies on Taiwan, even if preventing that triumph required using military force. China's reaction to Chen's apparent scrapping of the NUC was equally uncompromising, as PRC President Hu Jintao warned that the Taiwan leader risked "disaster" with such conduct.
Washington has also reacted negatively to Chen's behavior. U.S. officials had already been surprised and alarmed by his address to the nation on January 1, which had seemingly gone out of its way to challenge Beijing. Now, Chen was escalating tensions again.
The U.S. State Department responded to Chen's Lunar New Year's speech with an unusually blunt statement. It stressed that Washington "does not support Taiwan's independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either Taiwan or Beijing."
Making certain that Taipei got the message, Department spokesman Adam Ereli emphasized that the statement was being made "in the wake of some comments by President Chen" that might be "inflammatory and send the wrong signal." The extent of Washington's irritation with its Taiwanese client was evident when Ereli added that U.S. policymakers "certainly weren't expecting" the speech and "weren't consulted about it." Although the United States reluctantly accepted Chen's later decision to mothball the NUC, U.S. officials again stressed Washington's overall opposition to unilateral changes.
These latest incidents highlight the fragile and dangerous nature of Washington's policy on the Taiwan issue. The United States has pursued a strategy that both seeks to preserve friendly ties with Beijing and protect Taiwan's de facto independence. On the one hand, Washington does not dispute Beijing's contention that the island is part of China. On the other hand, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act mandates that the United States sell defensive arms to Taiwan and regard any PRC effort to coerce Taiwan as a grave breach of the peace. That policy of "strategic ambiguity" virtually invites miscalculation by Taipei, Beijing, or both capitals.
An especially troubling aspect of U.S. policy is that America has little control over events. The United States has to worry not only about whether its potential adversary (China) remains prudent, but also whether its client (Taiwan) remains prudent. Indeed, as Chen's recent actions suggest, Washington many have to worry more about Taipei provoking a crisis than Beijing doing so. It is dangerous enough to undertake a commitment to defend a client or ally, but it is especially risky when the United States does not (and probably cannot) exercise effective control over the actions of that client or ally. Yet that is precisely the situation today in the relationship between Washington and Taipei.
The dynamics regarding Taiwan are ominous. Chen and his supporters seem determined to push the envelope regarding independence, confident that the United States would never allow a vibrant democracy to be conquered by an authoritarian neighbor. At the same time, Beijing shows increasing determination to prevent Taiwan from consolidating its de facto independence, even at the risk of a confrontation with the United States.
Those trends place America in a delicate and dangerous position. In particular, the risk is growing that excessively assertive policies by Taiwan could drag the United States into war with China. U.S. leaders need to wake up to that mounting danger and decide what to do about it.
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(Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of seven books on international affairs, including America's Coming War with China: A Collision Course over Taiwan (Palgrave/Macmillan, 2006.)
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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)
