LOS ANGELES, Sept. 4 (UPI) -- In the Pacific Ocean, just off Malibu, is a time capsule.
I know because I put it there, to be opened shortly after the Oct. 7 California gubernatorial recall election.
Inside this time capsule are: (a) the percentage for the yes/recall Gray Davis and no/keep Gray Davis in office; and (b) the exact percentages that each candidate will get.
Actually, some scenarios will be clear within 10 days but, for now, I'm not saying how I think it will play out. This is, after all, an unusual election that is barely predictable.
There were two certain winners: U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and former Los Angeles Mayor Dick Riordan, a Republican. Both would have pledged to finish out Davis' term if elected in October and to not run for re-election. After they decided not to run, the race became tougher for all concerned.
Both Feinstein and Riordan had been victims of a Gray Davis campaign of character assassination.
In 1992, Davis ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. He compared Feinstein to hotelier Leona Helmsley, whom the media has nicknamed "The Queen of Mean." Feinstein won that primary and, in the general election, defeated incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. John Seymour.
Last year Davis intervened in the Republican primary for governor for the express purpose of taking out Riordan before he could win the GOP nomination.
Riordan lost the primary, but a cult-like sympathy developed over what Davis had done to him. Many believed that Riordan should have been governor and, were it not for the Davis strike in the primary, he would have been.
Until just before he declared he would be a candidate for governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger had also been encouraging Riordan to run.
There is no shortage of candidates -- 135 will be on the October recall ballot.
They will not be listed in alphabetical order, and ballot order is not consistent across the state. There are 80 possible variations, one per state assembly district.
Voter turnout models vary, making polling very difficult.
I expect a negative campaign, sooner than later. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrat Cruz Bustamante, the current lieutenant governor, are competitive. They will target each other. Arnold will tie Cruz to Davis and, in an attempt to pre-empt him, will criticize him for taking Indian casino money.
The Indian tribes' money, which is supporting Bustamante, will probably also be used for "independent expenditure" ads trashing Arnold.
The Democrats realize that, for millions of voters, Arnold and the recall seem inseparable. If they can bring Arnold's numbers down, perhaps Davis can stay in office. Art Torres, the state chairman of the California Democratic Party, already has called Arnold a "sexual predator" -- an ironic charge coming from the party of Bill Clinton.
In the end, ugliness on both sides could diminish the expected high turnout.
This week Feinstein, the state's most popular politician, is speaking directly into the camera. In anti-recall ads she will give Davis the credibility he now lacks.
U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., the recall's original financial sponsor, was enthusiastic at the start. But when Arnold declared, Issa developed cold feet and withdrew.
Bill Simon, the 2002 GOP nominee who withdrew from the recall race after it began, remains on the ballot. He could not shake the "loser" image he acquired in the 2002 race.
In fact Simon's positions in that race have been vindicated. The attacks on him proved unfounded. The fraud verdict against his family-owned company, for example, hurt him badly during the race. It was eventually overturned but he was not able to rehabilitate himself.
Issa's departure helped Schwarzenegger because he and his combat-tested campaign team would have attacked Arnold -- in news conferences and in negative TV spots.
Simon's exit helps conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock because it drew press attention to him. Simon's conservative voters generally prefer McClintock.
If Arnold seems inevitable, his momentum could overwhelm McClintock and businessman Peter Ueberroth. In theory Arnold could win even if the other two leading Republicans stay in the race. In practice, however, Arnold increasingly faces image problems, which is why McClintock and Ueberroth have not yet quit the race.
Their worst nightmare would be to withdraw and then Arnold stumbles fatally.
An anomaly, Ueberroth is a registered Republican who says he is running as an independent. Indeed, he won't even attend the Republican state convention, leaving McClintock a clear shot at challenging Arnold to a two-man debate or criticizing Arnold for avoiding one.
Some state and national Republican leaders want McClintock to drop out before the Sept. 12-14 convention. The Los Angeles event provides Arnold with an opportunity for a home run. He is endorsed by many prominent conservative Republicans. His well-funded campaign could create the illusion, if not the reality, of support by bringing in "volunteers" with signs, balloons, buttons.
McClintock and Ueberroth were encouraged initially by Arnold's imprudent appointment of Warren Buffett. Now, the press spins Arnold's contradictions.
For example the press reported Arnold would self-fund his campaign to avoid special interests. Now the press reports on Arnold's raising big money from the usual suspects.
Arnold's opponents hope the cumulative effect of flip-flops will erode Schwarzenegger's support.
Absentee ballots are also important. In a normal special election, absentees could comprise half the votes. In this high turnout recall, absentees will comprise at least one-third. That helps McClintock with the conservative base, especially if Arnold is on the defensive when the absentee ballots go out.
McClintock has little money. His campaign consists mainly of media appearances. Even so, he does not fully exploit the chance to confront Arnold and make the nightly news.
State Democrats meet the same weekend as Republicans. It's likely they will strongly condemn the recall and then urge a backup vote for Bustamante. That puts the Republicans on the spot. Do they suspend their rules to endorse Arnold? Don't bet on it. A lot can happen in the next 10 days to bring down Arnold's numbers and indirectly boost McClintock's stock.
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-- Arnold Steinberg is a political strategist, the author of graduate textbooks on politics and media and a veteran of many California Republican campaigns including Dick Riordan's first campaign for mayor of Los Angeles.
-- United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues.
