WASHINGTON, Oct. 31 (UPI) -- The fall of Lewis "Scooter" Libby further undermines President George W. Bush's already flawed and discredited national security top team right when they need their full strength to deal with the growing nuclear challenge from Iran. but it won't change the direction or implementation of key policies.
Libby's former responsibilities will be divided between two other figures, the White House announced Monday. But on Middle East policymaking especially, his successor will clearly be John Hannah, formerly Vice President Dick Cheney's deputy national security adviser and Libby's own trusted number two. He now becomes the vice president's national secuerity adviser.
Hannah was as close to Libby during his nearly five years in power as Libby was to his own boss, Cheney.
Hannah strongly supported Libby on pushing for the war with Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein and can be expected to maintain the same hawkish line as Libby in the looming confrontations with Iran and Syria.
Indeed, diplomatic sources have told UPI that even though the U.S. Army remains bogged down in Iraq with ever-escalating casualties. European officials have been startled by the degree to which their U.S. colleagues high in the administration remain eager to contemplate even the use of military force if necessary against Syria.
Hannah may now, therefore, find himself the new point man for the neo-conservatives in the Bush administration, replacing not only Libby but former Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith, who were the driving forces at the Pentagon not only for the war with Iraq but the now almost universally criticized and discredited occupation policies that failed to anticipate, avert or defeat the still spreading Sunni guerrilla insurgency there.
It has yet to be seen, however, if Hannah, for all his personal and policy identification with Libby, will be able to replicate his former boss's driving determination to push his and Cheney's policies through.
National Security Adviser Steve Hadley is widely acknowledged by administration insiders not to be a strong personality. And he has had far less of an impact on the NSC than his former boss, current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. He certainly does not enjoy the same high standing as she did in President Bush's eyes.
Rice repeatedly was able to block policies urged by Secretary of State Colin Powell, throwing her weight more often than not behind Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. It is hard to imagine Hadley ever being able to play that role against Rice.
However, Hadley has had another important and un-remarked upon function in the current corridors of power. By occupying the top spot at the NSC, he diverts public attention from his long-controversial but energetic and dynamic deputy Elliot Abrams.
Abrams remains a driving, even dominant force, in Bush administration decision-making and continues to enjoy the full confidence of the president, the vice president, Rice and Rumsfeld. And after all the upheavals, personnel departures and unpleasant policy surprises of the past year, that quartet remains the key inner circle of the administration with both the power and the determination to make foreign and national security policies firmly concentrated in their hands.
All this means that little, if any, change need be expected on the three most pressing foreign policy and national security issues facing the administration: Iran, Syria and North Korea.
On Iran, the United States will continue to push for U.N. Security Council action against Iran and to encourage the European Union "troika" of Britain, Germany and France to press Iran for a solution. And it will continue to remain activist and unwilling to accept the Iranians' evident desire to play for time and the European desire to avoid any head-on confrontation.
On Syria, U.S. policy will remain unchanged and the pressure on the Syrian government of President Bashar Assad over the Hariri assassination controversy is likely to increase rather than diminish in the coming months.
In contrast to these two issues, where the administration looks certain to keep the diplomatic temperatures turned up high, it looks likely to maintain its low key approach towards North Korea.
For all the general tough rhetoric on North Korea that the administration in general and the president in particular have used in the past, resolving the North Korean nuclear issue has never rated remotely as high among the priorities of administration policymakers as remaking the political and strategic maps of the Middle East always has. And this is as true for Abrams and Hannah as it was for Wolfowitz, Feith and Libby.
The combination of Abrams holding the real power in the NSC and Hannah smoothly taking over from his boss and close friend Libby, and similarly enjoying Cheney's full confidence on Middle East policymaking suggests that the administration will head into any confrontations with both Syria and Iran enjoying precisely the same strengths and weaknesses that it has so strikingly displayed over the past five years.
Its policies towards Syria and Iran will be strong on confidence and drive. And, despite the entirely unanticipated drain on U.S. military resources in Iraq, if any military threats or ultimatums are made to either Tehran or Damascus, they will be serious ones, and not just bluff.
In terms of the political division of labor in dealing with these three cutting edge issues, Rice looks likely to take the political point position in making the case publicly for increased diplomatic actions, and even military actions if need be, against Syria and Iran. Rumsfeld looks more likely to make the deterrent statements intended to prevent the North Koreans from causing trouble while the administration continues to focus on the Middle East.
There are new hands on deck on the USS Bush, but the course has not been changed and the command is still, "Full speed ahead."
