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Dallas Fed sees broad-based optimism

Employment growth accelerating in a state dealt a blow by oil price downturn.

By Daniel J. Graeber

DALLAS, Nov. 30 (UPI) -- A survey from the Federal Reserve Bank said that, even as crude oil production stands still, the broad-based economic consensus was one of optimism.

The bank said the number of hours worked across business sectors in Texas improved from a decline to near zero. The bank's revenue index, which measures service sector conditions, increased from 9.9 in October to 13.7 in November.

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Positive readings generally indicate expansion.

"Perceptions of broader economic conditions reflected more optimism in November," the bank said in its latest outlook report.

The bank last reported unemployment fell in all nine major metropolitan areas in the state last month. Keith Phillips, a senior economist at the bank, said there were broad indicators showing modest growth was likely in the months ahead.

Recovery is slow for Texas, however, and the lower fuel prices that came as the result of lower crude oil prices are one of the few bright spots for the state. Houston hosts the headquarters of several energy companies that were forced to cut payrolls early this year, though the Dallas bank said there should be a 1.5 percent growth in employment for 2016, an upward revision from last month's estimate of 1.2 percent.

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"Labor market indicators reflected faster employment growth and unchanged workweeks this month," the bank said.

Texas is the No. 1 oil producer in the United States and, over the past 12 months, produced 995 million barrels of crude oil.

The Railroad Commission of Texas, the state energy regulator, reported preliminary production of crude oil averaged 2.38 million barrels per day in September, less than 1 percent lower than the previous month and 1.6 percent lower than for September 2015.

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