ABUJA, Nigeria, Feb. 25 (UPI) -- The mysterious return of ailing President Umaru Yar'Adua after three months of seclusion in a Saudi Arabian hospital is likely to intensify a deepening power struggle among the country's political barons that augers ill for the crisis-plagued oil industry.
The president's arrival 2 a.m. Wednesday allayed widespread suspicions that he was dying and appeared to be intended to bolster the position of his deputy, Goodluck Jonathan, who was named acting president by lawmakers two weeks ago through legislation many considered unconstitutional.
Yar'Adua supporters pointedly insisted on addressing Jonathan as the vice president.
It appeared Yar'Adua was persuaded to return because Jonathan had initiated a series of planned reforms, including a major anti-corruption drive, that caused tremors across the political spectrum in a nation whose political life is dominated by graft and tribal rivalry.
Neither Yar'Adua, 58, who remains in poor health, apparently with a heart condition, nor his aides have made any discernible move to reclaim the powers transferred to Jonathan, 52, a mild-mannered academic.
But the partnership between the two men underlines the deep political divide between the Muslim-dominated north and the largely Christian south.
Yar'Adua is from the north, Jonathan from the south. By an unwritten agreement since military rule ended a decade ago, the presidency is to alternate between the two regions every eight years.
For a Christian to take over during a northerner's term is seen as a precedent that the political barons do not want to see.
Yar'Adua's return, despite his frail health, is widely seen as an attempt by his inner circle to hold onto power at any cost. He is in his first four-year term and had been expected to sail into a second in elections slated for April 2011.
"His precarious health will generate enough controversy to ensure that he will not be nominated for a second term in the elections … which may be moved up to November of this year," U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor said.
The focus on the struggle for power has raised concerns that critical issues are being ignored. That leaves the oil industry, the biggest in Africa, in a potentially grave situation that could cause serious damage to Nigeria's economic mainstay.
The oil-producing region lies in the south in the Niger River delta. It has been convulsed for five years by an insurgency and rampant crime.
Until a cease-fire achieved by Yar'Adua in August, output had slipped by one-third to around 2 million barrels per day. The nation lost an estimated $1 billion a month through lost revenue and the wholesale theft of crude oil.
The main insurgent group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, which claimed to be fighting for the rights of the long-neglected southern tribes, declared a cease-fire in October.
Yar'Adua promised a greater share of oil revenue for the region along with jobs and training for the insurgents if they handed over their weapons.
Thousands did. But the government's pledges fell by the wayside when Yar'Adua was whisked off to hospital in Jeddah Nov. 23, paralyzing the administration.
There have been isolated attacks and the cease-fire has become increasingly shaky. Violence is expected to intensify if no move is made to settle the southern problem.
Meantime, major reforms in the oil industry that had been planned by Yar'Adua's administration have caused widespread unease among the foreign companies that operate Nigeria's oil fields. Their leases are expiring and are up for grabs.
The government wants to cut back the companies' profits and assume greater control of the industry. On Monday, Jonathan urged the approval of the Petroleum Industry Bill currently hung up in parliament.
This would free oil funds for the impoverished south. But the oil companies, which include Chevron of the United States, Anglo-Dutch Shell and Total of France, oppose this. They claim it would cut their profits, already crimped by the insurgency, by too great a margin and make it uneconomical for them to continue operating in Nigeria.
But other companies, particularly the Chinese who are grabbing any African oil lease they can get their hands on, are ready to outbid these firms.
Shell and others say the proposed law could drive away billions of dollars in investment, particularly in the growing offshore fields, and make it difficult to develop new reserves.
