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Analysis: Assad sets terms for peace talks

By JOSHUA BRILLIANT, UPI Correspondent

TEL AVIV, Israel, July 19 (UPI) -- Syrian President Bashar Assad this week outlined his terms for peace talks with Israel, and it was a combination of steadfastness and new ideas tinged with a glimpse at what is usually secret diplomacy.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had sent him "delegations" saying Israel wanted peace, Assad Tuesday told the Peoples Assembly after being sworn in for another term of office. However, Olmert "did not talk about the land. For us the word peace is connected with the word land." It was an allusion to Syria's insistence that Israel undertake to withdraw to the pre-1967 war lines. It is Syria's pre-condition for talks.

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"We are prepared for just and comprehensive peace in accordance with international legitimacy," he said. If Israel expresses "clear and unambivalent commitment to this, we support the resumption of negotiations."

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Assad openly said he does not trust the Israelis and wants guarantees that Israel will "return the whole of the Golan."

It's undertaking could be made in "a deposit," he said, referring to a promise Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin gave U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher. In that deposit, which Christopher wasn't supposed to give the Syrians but evidently did, Rabin expressed readiness to withdraw to the pre-1967 war lines if Israel's terms are met.

Alternatively, Assad said, he would accept "something written."

Israelis have long ago realized there would be no peace with Syria unless they return the Golan, but the idea of signing an undertaking before the talks even begin elicited a scathing remark.

Even when buying a car you sign nothing before you agree on the price, a senior diplomat said.

Assad wanted open talks. "There is no reason why we should hide things from the Syrian people," he said.

However, that would complicate the give and take of negotiations.

And then, said Assad, when conditions for talks are ripe, "Channels could be found, not direct negotiations." He sought a foreign "sponsor."

So what were the "good" developments?

Israeli Foreign Ministry analysts cited his readiness for secret preparatory talks through intermediaries. "We knew about it in the past since he gave hints," but this time he said so openly, UPI was told.

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One of Israel's foremost experts on Syria, Hebrew University Professor Moshe Maoz, said that Assad's statement in a televised address to Parliament that he wants peace with Israel "entails a commitment." It signals his belief that he will be supported, Maoz added.

Olmert and his aides have often suspected Assad did not want peace with Israel, but a peace process to alleviate international pressure on his regime, which helped Iraqi insurgents, and because of its alleged involvement in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Israelis suspected that what he really wanted was improved ties with the United States.

And so when he insisted on U.S. involvement in the talks, Olmert told the al-Arabiya TV: "Bashar Assad doesn't want to sit with me. ... He wants to sit with the Americans."

He turned to Assad, "You know I am ready for direct peace negotiations with you."

The Syrian leader replied Tuesday. "You hear all the time analyses to the effect that Syria wants peace in order to lift the pressure, or as the Israeli prime minister said, ... 'Their aim is the United States.' ... We have a direct interest in the peace process.

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"There is only one party that we trust ... in this mediation," Assad continued. It was not the United States. It was Turkey, Israeli officials said.

Assad had asked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help out, and Ankara was happy to do so.

Maoz noted Turkey's relations with Syria are good. It wants to draw Damascus away from a possible Shiite Crescent to the pro-American camp, and the Golan would be the price.

A Turkish emissary last week visited Damascus for the second time trying to mediate, the Saudi al-Watan newspaper reported.

The Israelis are not thrilled with that mediation. Everybody uses Turkey as a go-between to show we don't say no to Turkey, Foreign Ministry analysts said.

However, a senior Israeli diplomat indicated former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was right when he opposed Turkish involvement. Ankara's expectations were so high that Sharon feared failure could ruin Israel's relations with it, the diplomat indicated.

Two Israeli Cabinet ministers advocated a warm response to Assad. Minister Meir Sheetrit offered to go to Damascus. Galeb Majadleh, the only Israeli-Arab member of Cabinet, told United Press International he believed Assad was sincere. "You can see it," he said.

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However, Maoz maintained the Syrians "do not want peace ... certainly not according to the American or European model. ... They accept a diplomatic arrangement that would be called peace providing they get the Golan back. ... It is not reconciliation."

Foreign Ministry analysts were equally skeptical. Assad needs the United States, and he might be trying to gain time until U.S. President George Bush is out of office, Iran becomes nuclear, Syria builds its army and the international tribunal over Hariri's assassination will "rust."

What is next then? Assad recommended proximity talks. "The most we can do is send a Syrian person to that (third) country, not to meet the Israelis, but to meet the officials of the mediating country, if they want fast communications. They might ask for an Israeli person to be in another hotel, or something of that sort," he said.

The moves would follow talks between the Foreign Ministry's former Director General Alon Liel and a Syrian-American, Ibrahim Soliman. They drafted a proposed peace agreement, and according to Liel a Swiss diplomat visited Damascus several times to verify Soliman reflected the Syrian positions. However, Assad never approved that document, an Israeli official said.

At the moment both sides are too far apart for "real negotiations" to take place, Foreign Ministry analysts maintain.

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But the good sign is that some form of communicating is under way.

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