(This is one in a series of 12 articles that look at the 2004 election from six months out. This article covers the issues that will likely decide for which candidate the voters decide to go on Nov. 2.)
WASHINGTON, May 3 (UPI) -- Six months out from the November elections, two major issues continue to dominate U.S. political discussions: the domestic economy and the war in Iraq.
This remains most evident at the presidential-campaign level, but could have trickle-down effects down the ballot.
Despite efforts of both the George W. Bush and John Kerry camps to focus attention on other issues, despite questions about Kerry's war record, despite questions about Bush's handling of the federal deficit and pre-Sept. 11, 2001, intelligence matters along with myriad other incendiary issues, the U.S. public remains focused largely on the same issues it was six months ago.
"Jobs and the economy is still the No. 1 issue," Republican pollster David Winston told United Press International.
Winston pointed out that March's rise in jobs by around 300,000 was a good sign for Bush, but not the clear indicator that a complete turnaround has come on the job front.
Independent pollster John Zogby, who predicted the electoral vote split in the 2000 election, agreed that the job situation and overall impact of the economic downturn on individuals remains the top issue on the minds of voters.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported recently that the U.S. economy grew at the solid annual rate of 4.2 percent in the first quarter of this year as military spending contributed significantly to the slight increase over the 4.1-percent rate of growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2003.
This is good news for Bush, but it's not without its problems.
For one, the rate is lower than what many economists had expected as businesses failed to deplete inventories as quickly as anticipated.
The steady rate of growth also raises the chance of inflation, with such pressures having the potential to negatively affect the economy in a way felt directly by consumers with rising interest rates and prices.
Zogby also noted that the economic growth, while good for corporate America, has failed to affect a good segment of the population.
"When people say the economy, they mean they are not doing well," said Zogby. "There are at least 30 percent (of people) who are not doing well enough economically (for them) to call the economy the issue. Remember there is a real distinction between Wall Street and Main Street."
Zogby and Winston both placed the war in Iraq as the No. 2 issue for voters, due mostly to the attention it draws from the cable television and Internet-driven 24-hour news cycle.
As could be expected, the take on the impact Iraq may have on the election is different depending upon the political prism through which the issue is viewed.
Winston said that setting up a democracy in the heart of the Middle East is not a simple thing to do and that when polled, people indicate that they are happy about getting rid of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, the Taliban who ruled Afghanistan and two-thirds of the al-Qaida leadership, but they remain troubled about the violence in Iraq.
Nevertheless, Winston does not share the fear expressed by some Republican strategists on background to UPI about the impact the issue could have on Bush's re-election prospects.
He pointed to a recent Washington Post poll showing that a majority of Americans who responded say they support sending additional troops to Iraq as a sign of continued support for the mission.
"People understand we have to make a commitment here," said Winston. "From the beginning Bush said this was going to be tough."
He also noted that the transition of power to Iraqis at the end of June and stability of Iraq after that scheduled move would be a "big moment" in the election.
A recent New York Times/CBS News Poll indicated that U.S. public support for the war in Iraq has eroded over the past several months, accompanied by rising criticism of Bush's handling of the situation.
Support, voiced by 63 percent of those polled in December, has fallen to 47 percent of respondents who said that the United States had done the right thing in invading Iraq. Forty-six percent of those polled now say the United States should have kept its military forces out of Iraq, up from 31 percent in December.
Simon Rosenberg, founder and president of the New Democrat Network, a centrist Democratic Party-affiliated group, told UPI that Iraq and other top campaign issues spell potential trouble for Bush.
"The next two to three months are really going to be dominated by a very difficult set of situations (for the Bush campaign)," said Rosenberg. "It is often said that second-term elections are really a referendum on the incumbent. This may be truer in this election than many people have imagined."
However, the Bush campaign does not seem to have taken a political hit from the downturn in support for the war with Bush and Kerry still riding even in the polls, reflecting the political schism in the U.S. public that lead to the close split in the vote between the two major party candidates in the 2000 presidential election.
However, recent headlines from the Sept. 11 Commission, the panel's potentially damaging findings along with the continued violence in Iraq portend more problems for the Bush campaign and provide fodder for Democrats.
"All this is really going to mean months of trouble for these guys," said Rosenberg. "This (the Iraqi power transition) could end up defining George Bush the way nothing else has. If it goes well and there is a peaceful transition to democracy, he will reap the benefits, and if it doesn't he will be out of a job in November."
The Republican view of Kerry on the issue is just as negative, particularly on Capitol Hill where the oft-repeated mantra among Republicans is that Kerry presents no real message or answers, particularly on the foreign policy front, just attacks on Bush.
"John Kerry makes Al Gore look like Winston Churchill," House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, told reporters.
Democrats see similar vulnerabilities regarding Bush's handling of key policy areas.
Rosenberg said the vulnerability of Bush on the economy, Iraq and other arenas is important to the Democratic strategy of reaching voters.
"I don't know how this is going to play out, but I think we have crossed into another election over the last couple of weeks," said Rosenberg of the impact Iraq and pre-Sept. 11 intelligence issues have had.
The polarization that has come to define the contemporary electorate is also defining the 2004 presidential election in terms of not only central policy issues, but also candidate support.
Zogby noted that unlike presidential elections historically, where around 20 percent of the electorate remains undecided six months out, some 5 or 6 percent of likely voters polled say they are undecided about who they will support in the fall.
In addition, both Bush and Kerry have relatively small levels of soft support among those who indicate they will be voting for either candidate.
Zogby and Winston, along with several Republican and Democratic strategists, agreed that part of the reason for the strong voter reaction so early in the election is the 24-hour news cycle, with cable and the Internet reinventing how people get news and how much they receive as it feeds natural political divisions.
The Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington may also be having an unexpected role, with people indicating in polls they are paying much more attention to news and politics than they did before those attacks.
But even with an estimate that more than 90 percent of likely voters have made up their minds about who they will support in November, the presidential election remains too close to call.
While something dramatic could happen to change the mood of voters, Zogby argues that in the absence of such an event, the polarization will continue and likely bring the vote down to the wire.
"I don think that is going to change," said Zogby. "It is too close to call."
Nevertheless, a group of third-tier issues also remains important to voters, according to analysts.
Following the war on terrorism, standby social issues such as education, healthcare and Social Security are vying for the attention of voters.
These types of issues could be particularly important for Kerry because of the presence of Ralph Nader as an independent candidate this year.
Nader, who ran on the Green Party ticket four years ago, is largely credited with receiving enough votes in 2000 in Florida -- where the election was decided by just more than 500 votes -- to make Bush the winner over Gore.
"Any one of those (issues) could be pivotal," said Zogby.
Winston predicted that the release of the Medicare prescription-drug card this year would become an important point in the race because people will be able to get past the rhetoric on both sides and see what the card will do for them.
There is also the potential for a wild-card issue to erupt and help define the election.
Zogby said that the several hundreds of thousands of people -- estimates ran from 500,000 to 1.1 million -- who showed up in Washington last month to demonstrate for abortion rights shows that the subject, while not a top-tier topic of debate, could become a "high-intensity" issue that moves some people to vote who would not otherwise have, particularly in the event of a significant happening such as the retirement of a Supreme Court justice.
For example, in 1998 there were 10 U.S. Senate races that were too close to call, with fervently liberal voters in some states telling pollsters they were not going to vote at all because Democratic candidates for the Senate such as Chuck Schumer of New York or John Edwards of North Carolina were not to the liking of many liberal-minded voters.
However, as Zogby noted, the slaying of a New York state physician who performed abortions by an anti-abortion rights activist three weeks before the election prompted a significant turnout among abortion-rights supporters, voters who played an important role in the outcome of those races.
Winston noted that before the 1982 congressional elections, unemployment hit 10 percent in October, changing the dynamics in an election in which Republicans lost 26 House seats, dispelling hopes of a Republican takeover of the body following Reagan's victory in the 1980 presidential race.
One thing those on all sides of the ideological divide agree to is that this will remain a very competitive presidential election, with the top issues and potential developments still too fluid to make the outcome uncertain half a year away.
"All of these top issues have uncertain outcomes," said Winston. "How they resolve themselves is obviously going to shape the context of this election."
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