MOSCOW, April 2 (UPI) -- On Friday, seven new nations were officially welcomed into NATO. Leaders representing Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and the three Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- could not hide their sense of being part of history as they were inducted as members at NATO's Brussels headquarters. As expected, Russia bristled, the old Cold War alliance has taken residence in countries that were part of the Soviet Union. However, even if Russia does not like having NATO on its borders, it is not particularly worried about it either.
For the seven nations, particularly the Baltic states, history was made Friday. In the last century, it was a curse to be a small nation between a strong Germany and Russia. These small nations rarely had independent foreign policies, always forced to appease powerful neighbors.
During the Cold War, all seven countries had domestic political orders forced upon them by the Soviet Union. Being part of NATO, with the United States as the alliance's unequaled leader, lifts the historic burden of being a small nation in Europe. No doubt the seven feel stronger and more secure in the world, but is NATO stronger and more secure with the induction of the seven?
NATO, the quintessential Cold War military institution, has been searching for its place in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. No longer fearing a Red Army invasion of Western Europe, the alliance has had to reinvent itself to legitimize its continued existence.
The alliance's new mission is to ensure stability on its borders as well as peacekeeping beyond Europe and the war against terrorism. Protecting stability has been the primary rationale for eastward expansion. This has suited the small nations of Eastern Europe just fine, fearing a resurgent Russia may again limit their domestic and foreign policies.
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, is resurgent and understandably has reacted with irritation since NATO can now easily spy on its territory as well as station military hardware deemed threatening. This is Russia's official line, and it comes as no surprise to anyone in the alliance or in Russia itself. It could not be otherwise. However, official reactions to NATO's latest expansion differ significantly from Russia's less outspoken calculation of its former Cold War foe.
The Kremlin knows NATO expansion is a political move that does not threaten its military security. Official displeasure with the induction of the seven is a well thought out Kremlin stratagem to capitalize on an alliance that will increasing find it difficult to act with unanimity -- complete consensus is necessary for the alliance to take military action. With anything but consensus within the NATO alliance on such issues as Afghanistan, the war on terrorism, and the current outbreak of violence in the Balkans, the Kremlin will most likely observe the expanded alliance with quiet amusement.
The seven new members and the three countries that joined the alliance five years ago -- Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary -- do not add any significant military weight to the alliance. It is estimated that it will take more than a decade for all 12 countries to meet current NATO standards, which are significantly lower than those of America's military. Until then, what these members may contribute is the cheap stationing of NATO troops, especially American military personnel and equipment as well as small chemical and biological weapons units. None of these issues threaten Russia's security.
Two other issues make NATO less threatening to Russia: the United States and the European Union. NATO-member aspirants have consistently been pro-American, knowing full well that the United States has been the primary mover behind NATO expansion. Recently, the United States has sought international political support where it can, with its traditional European allies, long-serving NATO members, at odds with America's conduct of the war against international terrorism. However, the pro-Americanism of the newest members of the alliance will slowly, but surely, evolve into pro-Europeanism. Economic realities make this almost inevitable.
NATO membership does bring international prestige and sense of greater security; however, membership in the European Union provides very important and tangible economic benefits. The overlap of membership in the European Union and NATO is high. For the newest members of the alliance, it may prove harder to say no the Berlin and Paris than to Washington. Add to this Russia's trading and energy relationship with the EU. Growing economic dependence pushes Russia and the EU together, making any dangerous military confrontation involving Russia and NATO very unlikely. NATO and the Kremlin may squabble about violation of air space from time to time, but issues like natural gas deliveries are where we should expect some war of words.
NATO's induction of new members this week was about history and not about real or imagined military threats against Russia. The seven new members hope to break with the past of being dependent on large neighbors, particularly on Russia. The Kremlin won't say it, but it is probably relieved NATO will be concerned with its own internal development to consolidate NATO's recent "gains." In the meantime, Russia can focus its attention where there are real security threats, it southern border.
(Peter Lavelle is a Moscow-based analyst and author of the electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" (untimely-thoughts.com).
