WASHINGTON, Nov. 16 (UPI) -- November 11th has, at various times, been known as Armistice, Veterans and, in Britain, Remembrance Day, all marking the end of the First World War. As the fight unfolds in Afghanistan between the United States and its allies, including the Northern Alliance, and the forces of al Qaeda and the Taliban, a little remembrance provide useful context for guessing about how all of this may turn out. At this writing, Afghanistan appears to be partitioned with the Northern Alliance and various anti-Taliban factions in control of much of Afghanistan and the Taliban beaten into full retreat to redoubts and strongholds outside the cities and into the hills.
First, while the ten-year war and Soviet defeat in Afghanistan are invariably trotted out as reminders of the perils of conflict in that United States and Britain have been at war off and on for more than ten years. Desert Storm ended country, consider another military fact. The in February of 1991. But the allies continue to enforce two "no-fly zones" over the northern and southern portions of Iraq and have flown hundreds if not thousands of sorties in which bombs and missiles were launched against Iraqi targets.
In 1999, NATO waged a 78-day air campaign to force Slobodan Milosevic to withdraw from Kosovo. Thousands of missions were flown against Serbian targets and non-trivial air defenses. Since Oct. 7, 2001, thousands of air attacks have been conducted against al Qaida and Taliban targets in Afghanistan. During these extended combat operations of the past decade, the United States has not lost a single soldier, airman, sailor or marine to enemy action. Several were killed in weather-related crashes and accidents (and more in isolated tragedies such as in Somalia and the bombing of USS Cole). And, over this same period, the U.S. has lost only one warplane -- an F-117 Stealth fighter -- over Yugoslavia along with several helicopters and unmanned reconnaissance drones in other places. This record is unprecedented in recent war annals.
Hence, one remembrance is the formidable nature of the American military and its ability to wage war, in line with the dictum of one of the United States' most controversial and combatative generals, George Patton, who told his soldiers that it was their job to make the "other SOB's die for their country."
Second, given the Northern Alliance's initial success in driving the Taliban south, will the remainder of the campaign to destroy al Qaida and the Taliban proceed as smoothly? Here, the Korean War is an important remembrance. After launching its surprise attack south in June 1950, North Korea quickly pushed the unready allied forces back to a tiny toehold on the southeast tip of Korea called the Pusan perimeter. Less than three months later, following furious rearguard and defensive action by the allies, Gen. Douglas McArthur made a brilliant amphibious assault at Inchon, Seoul's seaport just south of the 38th parallel that had divided the Korea's since 1945.
The allies quickly collapsed the North Korean resistance and raced north, confident they would soon occupy the entire peninsula. But, by Thanksgiving, the growing likelihood of a unified Korea under a U.S.-led coalition triggered a powerful Chinese response. After signaling its intent several times, People's Liberation Army "volunteers" swarmed south across the Yalu River in huge numbers and drove the allies back to the 38th parallel where the war stalemated for nearly three more years.
While two states with long borders with Afghanistan -- Pakistan and Iran -- and three others -- China, Russia and India -- are close by and possess large armies, there is no suggestion that any will be directly involved militarily or intervene as in Korea. However, the so-far invincible Northern Alliance should not be presumed to carry and win the fight as readily in the south where the Taliban are well dug in and enjoy far more local ethnic support among the Pashtuns.
The third relevant remembrance is World War II and the great victory that won the war and secured the peace. The United States set unconditional surrender as the goal. After the Axis Powers surrendered, the United States and its allies were able to turn both the former German and Japanese enemies into real democracies and close allies, one of the major achievements of the past century. Unconditional surrender of the Taliban may be a tacit goal. But no one expects Afghanistan to become a functioning democracy. The test is setting the proper objectives.
Using the United States military decisively and overwhelmingly, even when and if losses are taken, remains crucial to destroying Taliban resistance. Simply winning the first battles, while far better than the alternative, does not guarantee that the war will soon be over. And, ensuring that the right policy aims and strategic objectives are set, are viable and then are achieved remains central to future victory. Otherwise, this war against terrorism will not succeed.
(Harlan Ullman is a UPI columnist.)
