BEIJING, Feb. 3 (UPI) -- China's growth may be adversely affected by global issues but most experts and analysts say they expect a soft landing for its economy in 2012.
"We expect the debt crisis in Europe and the weak recovery in the United States to reduce demand and cause a drag on China's export-dependent economy," China Daily reported, quoting a report from Standard & Poor's ratings agency.
The agency forecast China's gross domestic product would decline further in 2012 -- to about 8 percent from 9.2 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010 -- the report said.
"We also project that there is a one-in-four chance of a medium landing of 7-percent growth to occur, and a one-in-10 likelihood of a hard landing of 5-percent GDP expansion," said S&P credit analyst Terry Chan, China Daily reported.
A "soft landing" usually refers to economic growth of more than 7 percent with an inflation rate below 4.5 percent.
The newspaper said S&P's base-case estimate was matched by most analysts, who predicted growth of 8 to 9 percent this year.
China's January Purchasing Managers' Index, an indicator of manufacturing activity, was above 50, suggesting a moderate expansion.
"The January PMI suggested the easing (of) monetary measures and proactive fiscal tools are taking effect, which eased the fears of a hard landing," said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia-Pacific economist with Mizuho Securities Co. Ltd.
