GENEVA, Switzerland, July 12 (UPI) -- The global workforce will have lost 74 million people to HIV/AIDS in 2015 -- up sharply from the 28 million total workers that will have been lost by next year -- unless drastic measures are taken to stem the pandemic, according to a report by the International Labor Organization published Monday.
The 177-member global-labor agency based in Geneva estimates that in 2005 more than 3 million persons of working age will die from the disease -- 78 percent of them in Africa.
In the absence of effective treatment, says the study, in 2015 nearly 6 million persons of working age will die, including nearly 28,000 in the United States.
The study, which will be presented at the International Conference on AIDS in Bangkok July 11-16, says HIV/AIDS is having a devastating effect on the economies of countries most affected by the disease, crippling the availability of human capital in the public and private sectors, agriculture and the informal economy.
According to estimates by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization cited in the report, 7 million farm workers died worldwide between 1985 and 2000 as a result of AIDS.
"HIV/AIDS is not only a human crisis, it is a threat to sustainable global, social and economic development," said ILO Director General Juan Somavia.
"The loss of life and the debilitating effects of the illness will lead not only to reduced capacity to sustain production and employment, reduce poverty and promote development, but will be a burden borne by all societies -- rich and poor alike," said Somavia.
The report, "HIV/AIDS and Work: Global Estimates, Impact and Response," estimates that between 1992 and 2002 the direct and indirect impact of HIV/AIDS in the 50 countries where the disease was measurable lowered the gross domestic product growth rate by 0.2 percent per year, or $25 billion annually.
But in the 41 most-affected economies, the report points out, the annual loss of GDP attributable to HIV/AIDS averaged a higher 0.9 percent. The report estimates these economies could incur a loss of $270 billion by 2020 if the pandemic continues to curb their economic growth.
In South Africa the average annual rate of GDP loss was a high 2.1 percent or $7.2 billion each year because of labor-force losses during the 10-year period studied. In Zimbabwe it was 2.3 percent or $638 million annually; in Botswana, 2.8 percent or $270 million; and in Haiti 0.9 percent or $99 million.
In the continued absence of treatment, says the ILO, 19 countries -- most in Africa -- will have lost more than 10 percent of their labor force by 2015. Three of them -- Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho -- will have lost more than 30 percent of their workforce, and Zimbabwe more than 40 percent.
At present, an estimated 36.5 million persons of working age (15-64) have HIV, and 2 million workers will be unable to work in 2005 due to the debilitating effects of the illness, up from 500,000 in 1995.
The number could double to 4 million by 2015, the report said.
The report says that efforts in numerous countries are focusing on both prevention and treatment to redress the pandemic and highlights that the workplace offers "extraordinary potential" for intensified and broadened action globally.
The ILO asserts governments "need to act in urging, promoting and supporting workplace action as an integral part of the national HIV/AIDS strategy."
Odile Frank, ILO coordinator and lead author, told reporters the workplace is "an ideal place for prevention," as it represents a captive audience and an ideal medium for a comprehensive approach.
Frank said the benefits for enterprises far outweigh the costs.
Indeed, the ILO report concludes that HIV/AIDS destroys human capital built over years, lowers output and labor productivity and weakens the capacity of the workforce to produce goods and services for the economy.
A survey of five companies in Kenya, the report said, found that the cost of AIDS reached $45 per employee annually, which represented 3 percent of company profits.
On a brighter note, the study outlines that companies worldwide are starting to implement workplace programs on HIV/AIDS prevention and care and measures to combat discrimination.
Some are even going further with community outreach programs, it added.
Anglo-American, the mining conglomerate, says the ILO hopes to treat 3,000 persons in 2004 with ARVs (antiretroviral therapy), up from 223 the year before.
The report said Anglo-American sees the treatment costs "offset by the sharp decline in mortality -- from 30 percent to 3.4 percent in the first year -- and in absenteeism due to illness."
Anglo-American estimates that 30,000 of its 125,000 employees in South Africa are HIV positive, and the group expects 10 percent of HIV employees to join the treatment program each year, the report said.
Similarly, Volkswagen do Brazil, which employees 30,000 people, has had in place a comprehensive program for prevention and care of all employees and their dependents since 1996, including extended-family members and retirees, the ILO said.
It adds the program is funded from cost savings from reduced absenteeism and low worker turnover. By 2002, the company had more than 50 persons on ARV treatment and recorded a 90-percent drop in hospitalizations, plus a strong anti-discrimination policy in place.
Finally, athletic-shoe and clothing company Nike Inc. is working in Thailand with a local project that focuses on training, peer educators and voluntary testing and counseling and provides information for employees and voluntary confidential testing, the report said.
"Employees who are HIV-positive are treated in a non-discriminatory manner and are allowed to continue working as long as medically approved," the report said.
