LONDON, May 5 (UPI) -- As British voters begin going to the polls Thursday morning, Prime Minister Tony Blair looks set for a historic third term. Despite widespread disillusionment and distrust of Blair, all the signs are that come Friday morning, he will be addressing the public from the steps of Number 10 Downing Street as he embarks on the first third term the Labor Party has ever won.
Though Conservative Leader Michael Howard is talking up his chances -- he says his soccer team Liverpool's victory over favorites Chelsea Tuesday "may well be an omen" -- privately supporters are expecting their third defeat. His heavy focus on immigration and crime seems to have turned off as many voters as it has won over, and he has been widely criticized for running a negative campaign.
The Liberal Democrats may be headed for their best results in over 80 years, but in few people's imaginations could their surge be sufficient to unseat the New Labor giant.
Most opinion polls are predicting, if not a Labor landslide, then at least a comfortable win. A Populus poll for the Times of London published Wednesday gave Labor a substantial six-point lead with 38 percent of the electorate against 32 percent for the Conservatives and 21 percent for the Liberal Democrats.
Some polls give Labor a narrower lead. An NOP poll for the Independent newspaper put Labor at just 36 percent against the Conservatives at 33 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 23 percent.
But not a single poll predicts a Tory win, and a Channel 4 calculation of poll averages during the campaign puts Labor at 38 percent, 5 percent ahead of the Conservatives at 33 percent and the Liberal Democrats at 21.5 percent.
However, the Conservatives say the polls do not present an accurate picture of the battle being fought in key marginal seats. Labor concurs, saying the party is in greater danger in key marginals than national polls suggest.
Their claims could easily be dismissed as strategic -- the Tories want to keep a win in sight to energize their base, while Labor are safeguarding against supporters staying at home in the belief a Labor victory is guaranteed.
But a recent ICM survey of battleground seats for the Guardian suggests their claim is true.
The poll, published Tuesday, indicates that in 108 seats where Labor is facing a strong Tory challenge, the party's share of the vote is down from 47 percent in 2001 to 41 percent. Meanwhile, the Tories have maintained their share of the vote at around 36 percent.
In contrast the Tories look set to retain comfortably the 57 seats they are defending against Labor. In these constituencies they have maintained their share of the vote at 44 percent, while Labor has dropped three points since 2001 to 33 percent.
And when the large numbers of voters who say they may yet change their minds are added into the equation, the true unpredictability of Thursday's result comes into focus.
A NOP poll for the Independent newspaper published Thursday suggests that 27 percent of those certain to vote may still switch party.
Labor is clearly nervous about the marginals, having blitzed them in the final days of the campaign. Prime Minister Tony Blair, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown and Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott have been warning voters in battleground seats that "there are three ways to get a Tory MP. One is to vote Tory, one is to stay home, one is to vote Liberal Democrat."
The intensity of the party's attacks on the Liberal Democrats in the final week suggest the latter may now be their primary concern.
Charles Kennedy's party, long the poor relation of British politics, could be headed for its best general election result in 70 years if the polls prove correct. As vocal opponents of the Iraq war, they have benefited most from the anger and distrust of many Labor voters over the invasion.
With the release of the attorney general's legal advice on Iraq, the leak of a Downing Street memo suggesting Blair's early commitment to war and the death of the 87th British soldier in the conflict, Iraq has dominated the final two weeks of the campaign.
Meanwhile support for the party has surged, and it is now on course to secure at least 25 percent of the vote. The Lib Dems are confident of winning at least 70 seats - up from 54 at the end of the last parliament, and some are predicting 85.
Low turnout is another danger for Labor. The party has been criticized for mathematical exaggeration after unveiling a poster declaring that "if one in 10 Labor voters don't vote, the Tories win." Experts said the true figure would be closer to one in four, and some said even a defection of that size would only produce a hung parliament.
But the findings of the ICM poll do suggest that Labor's 160-seat majority could be slashed to below 80. Such a dramatic drop would undoubtedly be blamed on Blair and would greatly diminish his authority. Unable to deal with disgruntled backbenchers, he would likely be under significant pressure to hand over to Chancellor Gordon Brown -- who has replaced the PM as Labor's greatest electoral asset -- sooner rather than later.
Constituency polls by ICM also indicate that there could well be some shock results on election night.
A survey taken in Lady Margaret Thatcher's former North London seat of Finchley and Golders Green, for example, suggests the race is too close to call, even though it is only 42nd on the Tories' list of targeted Labor seats.
Labor's support in Finchley has plummeted from 46 to 40 percent since the 2001 election, with disaffected Labor supporters fuelling an upsurge in the Liberal Democrat vote.
Though even with such upsets Labor's grasp on power seems unshakeable, it could be headed for the lowest share of the popular vote of any governing party in modern times, polls suggest. Should Labor gain 38 percent of the vote, and the Populus estimated turnout of just 57 percent prove correct, Blair would find himself leading the country with the backing of less than a quarter of the electorate.
Neither would a Labor victory be widely welcomed. According to Thursday's NOP poll, only 33 percent of people say they will be happy if Labor wins -- including just 76 percent of Labor voters.
