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Analysis: The Egyptian endeavor

By CLAUDE SALHANI, UPI International Editor

WASHINGTON, June 30 (UPI) -- With all the focus on Iraq and the transfer of power from the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority to the U.N.-appointed Iraqi interim government, the long-standing Palestinian-Israeli dispute -- the perennial cause of Middle East agitation -- has recently fallen off the front page.

However, the lack of limelight did not prevent Egypt from working quietly behind the scenes to try and bridge differences between, not only Israelis and Palestinians, but also among various Palestinian factions, an important step if any accord is to be reached.

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Since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, there has been very little that Israelis and Palestinians could ever see eye-to-eye on. But recently one of the few points that both sides seemed to agree on is that Egypt is playing a positive role as the new go-between in the intricate Middle East peace imbroglio.

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Mediating in the Middle East conflict has traditionally been a role reserved for the United States. But with Iraq, not to mention Afghanistan, the ongoing "war on terrorism" and the November presidential elections looming on the horizon, there has been much to keep the Bush administration occupied and distracted. Consequently, both the Palestinian Authority and Ariel Sharon's government welcomed Cairo's initiative with open arms.

Yet the Palestinians stopped short of calling Cairo's new involvement in peace-making an Egyptian peace plan per se.

"There is no such thing as an 'Egyptian plan,'" Saeb Erakat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, told United Press International recently. The Palestinian minister conceded, however, that "Egypt is playing a very important role" in intervening in the current conflict.

That fact was confirmed to UPI by a senior Israeli diplomat in Washington who reiterated Egypt's positive involvement in trying to bring about a peaceful resolution to the "Gaza problem."

But given that in the Middle East where there is always room for ambiguity, as Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath accused the Israeli government of attempting to sabotage the Egyptian security initiative. Shaath told reporters he considers Sharon's position on the Egyptian initiative proof that he is not serious about evacuating the Gaza Strip. "Israelis wanted Egypt to play a security role in the territories, but they discovered that Egypt demanded Israel commit to its obligations and evacuate the Gaza Strip and the north of the West Bank and implement the 'road map,'" Shaath said.

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But Dennis Ross, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who just returned from a swing through the area, confirmed Wednesday that Palestinians and Israelis are still looking toward Egypt to play a pivotal role in the disengagement plan.

The Gaza problem revolves around the issue of who would assume security responsibilities for the Gaza Strip once Israel withdraws, as Israel's Prime Minister Sharon said Israel would do by the end of next year.

Until now Egypt has managed to successfully remain out of the chaotic situation that represents this narrow, 360-square-kilometer (225 square miles) impoverished, over-populated strip of land bordering the eastern edge of the Mediterranean Sea inhabited by 1.3 million Palestinians and some 7,500 Jewish settlers. Thousands of Israeli soldier serve in Gaza to ensure the settlers' protection.

Sandwiched between Israel and Egypt, the Strip is furthermore plagued by high unemployment and the ever-rising influence of Islamist fundamentalists.

Groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad have, much to the detriment of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority, gained much sympathy and support among the general population in Gaza. The social endeavors of the Islamist groups, such as hospitals and health centers, schools and other social services which are otherwise non-existent in the Strip, have given them the upper hand. Of the two areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority, Gaza has always been worse off, a situation that has played in favor of the fundamentalists.

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Gaza was administered by Egypt until Israel occupied the territory in the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Gaza had always been a problematic area for the Egyptians before 1967 and for Israel since.

Realizing the difficulties in maintaining security in Gaza, Sharon decided to withdraw. He has pledged to remove troops and settlements from the area by the end of 2005.

Yet Israel worries that once their forces withdraw from Gaza, particularly from the border with Egypt, Palestinians opposed to a peaceful disengagement could easily transport arms, munitions and personnel across the Egyptian-Palestinian border.

Adding to the problem is that years of erosion due to the ongoing intifada -- and all the measures and counter-measures it entailed -- have left the Palestinian security forces largely inoperative. Given their current status, the Palestinian Authority's forces would most likely prove highly ineffective in policing the border area, or in securing the Gaza Strip.

Furthermore, without a tacit agreement from Hamas and Islamic Jihad that they would respect and adhere to any agreement reached by Arafat's Palestinian Authority, chances of any peaceful transition are dim.

Hence the crucial importance of Egyptian participation in the disengagement process.

Egypt, said Erakat, has been asked to help restructure the Palestinian security apparatus in Gaza. Erakat also said that King Abdullah of Jordan had agreed to help in restructuring Palestinian security forces. However, Erakat stressed, "the Palestinian Authority will remain the sole authority in the Palestinian territories. Egypt and Jordan will not have any security role if/when Israel withdraws," stressed Erakat.

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That role, said Erakat befalls to the Palestinians. "We need to begin the process of restructuring our forces in Gaza," said the Palestinian minister.

For the first time in three years, Erakat said, Israelis and Palestinians were trying to do deals on the ground. He said he wanted to give this a chance.

"I see as shy ray of hope," said Erakat during a visit to Washington, DC last week.


(Comments may be sent to [email protected].)

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